UK: BOE: Instant Answer questions for May meeting
Instant Answers Questions for the BOE May 2025 policy decision, with results expected at 12.02 on Thursday - 2 minutes later than normally published due to a national period of reflection for VE Day.
1. Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
3. Number of members voting for 50bp cut?
4. Number of members voting for other rate decision?
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the direction / magnitude of dissent)
5. Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” from its guidance?
6. Did the MPC drop reference to “careful” in the guidance?
7. Did the MPC drop reference to “restrictive” from its guidance?
8. Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?
9. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the March policy statement?
10. UK CPI forecast in 2 years time at market rates (mode / mean)?
Previous: 2.3% / 2.3% (Previous Q2-27 was 2.2% / 2.2%)
11. UK CPI forecast in 3 years time at market rates (mode / mean)?
Previous: 1.9% / 1.9%
12. UK GDP modal forecasts at market rates (2025/2026/2027)?
Previous 0.75%/1.5%/1.5%
Note: Q12 to nearest 0.25ppt
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OPTIONS: Prevalence Of Large Call Spread Trades Monday
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXM5 126/125/124 put fly, sold out at 3-4 in 10k
- ERK5 98.125/98.25 call spread, bought for 1.25 in 15k
- ERM5 98.125/98.25 call spread has traded in 30k at 1.25. Paper has both bought and sold this structure
- ERZ5 98.0625/98.25 call spread 14.8K given at 10.25
- ERZ5 99.25/99.75 call spread, now trading at 2.25. 20k sold all day at 2.5 down to 2.25
- 0RK5 98.00/98.125 cs, sold at 9 in 52k
- SFIZ5 97.50/98.00 call spread, bought for 3.25-3.5 in 10k
FED: US TSY 14D AUCTION: HIGH RATE 4.300%; 8.37% AT HIGH
- US TSY 14D AUCTION: HIGH RATE 4.300%; 8.37% AT HIGH
- US TSY 14D BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 57.50% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 14D BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.01% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 14D BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 36.49% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 14D AUCTION: BID/COVER 2.65
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 ‘23
- RES 3: 1.1214 High Sep 25 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.1188 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1144 High Oct 1 2024 / High Apr 3
- PRICE: 1.0914 @ 16:44 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 1.0882 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0824 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 1.0684 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
EURUSD has pulled back from last week’s high. The trend condition remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of key resistance at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. It paves the way for a climb towards 1.1188 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 1.0824, the 20-day EMA.
