The uptick in core global FI markets provides a modest dovish impetus for GBP STIRs, with ongoing focus on geopolitical risks centred on Greenland & Latin America.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Feb-26 | 3.711 | -1.4 |
Mar-26 | 3.622 | -10.3 |
Apr-26 | 3.514 | -21.1 |
Jun-26 | 3.446 | -27.9 |
Jul-26 | 3.374 | -35.1 |
Sep-26 | 3.347 | -37.8 |
Nov-26 | 3.316 | -40.9 |
Dec-26 | 3.312 | -41.3 |
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"FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S FAURE: WE WILL VOTE FOR FRENCH BUDGET'S SOCIAL SECURITY PROGRAMME" Reuters News
Comes ahead of tomorrow's vote on the 2026 Social Security bill. A reminder that on Friday, the National Assembly voted in favour of the Revenue section of the bill.
Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
The trend needle in Gold continues to point north. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $4031.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.