STIR: BoE-dated OIS Pricing Over 40bp Of Easing For '26, DMP Due Tomorrow
The uptick in core global FI markets provides a modest dovish impetus for GBP STIRs, with ongoing focus on geopolitical risks centred on Greenland & Latin America.
- SONIA futures flat to +1.0. SFIZ6 1.0 off yesterday’s top, with the December high (96.720) remaining untested.
- BoE-dated OIS pricing ~41bp of easing through year-end, little changed on the day and vs. ~36bp the day after December’s ‘hawkish’ BoE rate cut.
- UK construction PMI data is due today, while the latest BoE DMP survey will be released tomorrow.
- As a reminder, we think that progress on headline CPI and official labour market data will not be sufficient to justify the next BoE rate cut, at least not in isolation. It is likely that the Bank will also need to see progress on inflation expectations data as well as further DMP prints and a non-adverse result from the Agents' Pay Survey.
- Goldman Sachs write "accumulating evidence of disinflationary progress and ongoing labour market weakening is paving the way for further BoE easing. We expect Bank Rate to decline to 3% in 2026, 30bp lower than market pricing".
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Feb-26 | 3.711 | -1.4 |
Mar-26 | 3.622 | -10.3 |
Apr-26 | 3.514 | -21.1 |
Jun-26 | 3.446 | -27.9 |
Jul-26 | 3.374 | -35.1 |
Sep-26 | 3.347 | -37.8 |
Nov-26 | 3.316 | -40.9 |
Dec-26 | 3.312 | -41.3 |
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FRANCE: Socialists' Faure: Will Support 2026 Social Security Bill
"FRENCH SOCIALIST PARTY'S FAURE: WE WILL VOTE FOR FRENCH BUDGET'S SOCIAL SECURITY PROGRAMME" Reuters News
Comes ahead of tomorrow's vote on the 2026 Social Security bill. A reminder that on Friday, the National Assembly voted in favour of the Revenue section of the bill.
WTI TECHS: (F6) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $60.23 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 8
- SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
- SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Structure
- RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction
- PRICE: $4216.2 @ 07:28 GMT Dec 8
- SUP 1: $4145.3/4031.1 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29
The trend needle in Gold continues to point north. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $4031.1. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
