MNI: BOC SAYS DOESN'T NEED TO ALTER PATH OF QT RIGHT NOW

• The overall Dallas Fed manufacturing index was as expected in June, rising to -15.1 (cons -15.0) from -19.4 in May.
• The production index suggested activity was essentially flat as it only ticked up from -2.8 to +0.7.
• Layoffs outstrip hiring (from the press release, here): “Labor market measures suggested slight employment declines and shorter workweeks this month. The employment index posted a second negative reading in a row but ticked up to -2.9. Seventeen percent of firms noted net hiring, while 20 percent noted net layoffs.”
• However, upward pressure in received prices: “Upward pressure on prices and wages continued in June. The wages and benefits index edged up three points to 24.3, a reading slightly higher than average. The raw materials prices index was mostly unchanged at 21.5, still below its historical average, while the finished goods prices index shot up 10 points to 14.4.”
• This pressure in finished goods is notable after a similar development in last week’s Philly Fed survey (Dallas highest since Feb’23, Philly highest since Jul’23) although it wasn’t reflected in latest Empire or flash PMI data.

Earlier Mar'25 call spread - carry-over from late last week followed by modest put spread volumes while underlying futures inch off early session lows.

• +5,000 SFRZ4 94.68/94.93/95.81/96.06 Iron Condor 8.0 vs 95.16
• +12,000 SFRM5 95.25/95.75 put spds 2x1 1.75-2.0 ref 95.72
• +5,000 2QU4 96.12/96.37 put spds 11.75 vs. 96.315
• +5,000 0QN4 97.12 calls 0.25 ref 95.925
• +20,000 SFRH5 96.75/97.75 call spds, 4.75 ** adds to appr $150k bought last Thu-Fri

The Supreme Court is preparing to announce rulings on two pending cases, including whether former President Donald Trump should be immune from prosecution for acts committed whilst he occupied the Oval Office, which could be consequential to the presidential election. The first opinions are expected to come on Wednesday.

• The most anticipated opinion is on Trump's immunity. The lower courts rejected his assertion, but the SCOTUS appears more inclined to lean towards some presidential immunity. Should the court reject Trump's appeal, it remains unlikely that either of the two Department of Justice cases against Trump, the classified documents case in Florida and the January 6 case in Washington, will go to trial before the presidential election in November.
• The court will also rule on whether the Department of Justice correctly charged January 6 rioters with obstruction charges. The Hill notes: "A ruling in favor of the rioters could also lend credence to claims by Trump and his allies that the Justice Department overreached in its prosecution of the attack… And, it could undermine the Justice Department’s narrative that the Capitol riot was an attack on American democracy.”