EMISSIONS: BNEF Revised Down 2030 EUAs Forecast
Jul-03 13:04
BNEF has revised down its 2030 EUAs forecasts from €147/t to €126/t, following the EC announcing that it plans to use the revenues generated by CBAM to compensate heavy industries under EU ETS, it said.
- The compensation will allow the affected producers to be compensated proportionally to the rising carbon cost resulting from the phasing out of the free allowances following CBAM.
- The announcement yet to specify the mechanism of the compensation.
- BNEF stated that the proposal will act as a “relaxation pill” for EU industries, potentially delaying their efforts to decarbonise.
- Under this new proposal, the steel and cement sectors will receive the largest share of compensations among CBAM sectors at €8.6bn and €6bn, respectively.
- The proposal would be put forward by the end of 2025 and review in 2027.
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ECB: June Projections: Key In Shaping Initial Market Reaction [UPDATE]
Jun-03 12:56
This update includes additional sell-side views recieved over the last day.
The ECB’s June macroeconomic projections will be key in shaping the initial market reaction to Thursday’s policy statement. The statement will likely re-iterate the exceptionally uncertain outlook and the bank’s data-dependent stance, but a weak set of GDP/inflation projections could underscore the Governing Council’s dovish bias heading into H2. See below for a table of analyst expectations for the June projections.
- Real GDP: The main downward growth impact from US tariffs and associated uncertainty is expected in 2026, as the stronger-than-expected Q1 ’25 GDP print provides some offset this year. In 2027, some analysts pencil in upward revisions to account for higher EU/German fiscal spending.
- RBC and Commerzbank look for a one-tenth downward revision in 2025 to 0.8%, while Natixis and Nomura see a two tenth upward revision to 1.1%.
- The range of projections for 2026 is 0.9-1.2%.
- In 2027, SEB and UBS expect a 1.5% projection on a larger fiscal impulse.
- Headline inflation: The median analyst expects a two tenth downward revision in 2025 on weaker energy prices and a stronger EUR. The weaker growth expectations in 2026 also feed into lower headline inflation in that year.
- Four analysts see a three tenth downward revision in 2025 to 2.0%, while Natixis only see a one tenth decline to 2.2%.
- Several analysts see 2026 inflation revised two tenths lower to 1.7%. A reminder that the MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece noted that this projection is likely to be either 1.7% or 1.8%.
- Core inflation: The median analyst expects a one tenth downward revision in 2026 relative to March, a small upward revision in 2025 and no change in 2027.
- The anticipated upward revision in 2025 is due to higher-than-expected spot core inflation pressures since March.
- Goldman and UBS expect a 1.8% reading in 2026, but a good number of analysts also see a one tenth upward revision to 2.0%. Nomura see a 2.1% projection for 2026.
- A reminder that the ECB will also present a scenario analysis in the June projection round, but it is unclear whether this will feature an alternative set of GDP/inflation projections.
- Note: The June macroeconomic projections are compiled by Eurosystem (i.e. National Central Bank) staff, while March was compiled by ECB staff.
MNI: US REDBOOK: MAY STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO
Jun-03 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: MAY STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +4.9% WK ENDED MAY 31 V YR AGO WK
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Bank of NY Mellon 3Pt Debt Joins List
Jun-03 12:54
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/03 $3B #AfDB: $2B WNG 3Y SOFR+33, $1B WNG 10Y SOFR+64
- 06/03 $2B #Prov. of Ontario: 10Y SOFR+95
- 06/03 $1.5B CPPIB 5Y SOFR+54
- 06/03 $1.25B #Kommuninvest +3Y SOFR+39
- 06/03 $500M IADB 2030 tap SOFR+40
- 06/03 $500M Autodesk WNG 10Y +120a
- 06/03 $Benchmark Bank of NY Mellon 3NC2 +75a, 3NC2 SOFR, 11NC10 +110a
- 06/03 $Benchmark GE Healthcare +5Y +110a, 10Y +135a
- 06/03 $Benchmark NAB 3Y +65a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a
- 06/03 $Benchmark Hong Kong 5Y Green +50
- 06/03 $Benchmark Corebridge 5Y +100a
- 06/03 $Benchmark IDA 5Y SOFR+46a
