US INFLATION: BLS Confirms To MNI That Housing Indices Unchanged In October
Dec-19 19:40
MNI contacted the Bureau of Labor Statistics to confirm methodologies used in the latest CPI report to impute the October data and calculate the November indices.
- They confirm that they carried over most price indices from September into October, making November's comparison to October's price levels effectively a 2-month change: "BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data so survey data for commodities and services were carried forward to October 2025 from September 2025. November 2025 indexes were calculated by comparing the collected November 2025 prices with the carried-forward October 2025 prices."
- The key exception is that the Rent and OER index values for October were unchanged on a % basis from prior. "Rents for October 2025 were carried forward from April 2025, yielding unchanged index values for rent and owners’ equivalent rent for October. November 2025 indexes were calculated using collected November rent data, following our regular procedures. The change from September to November reflects collected data for those months."
- Recall that these calculations use a rotation of properties that are returned to each 6 months, with the 6th-root of the change over that time used as the relevant housing CPI.
- The carry forward policy for uncollected data in October meant October's monthly index was the same as September's, meaning 0.0% housing inflation, and November's was compared to that level.
- As such the 0.13% increase in rents / 0.27% in OER in the November index was effectively a one-month change, vs a 2-month change.
- This decision to record a "zero" for October housing means the overall CPI index was lower than it otherwise would have been, keeping a lid on Y/Y NSA inflation not just for November but for the next year until the base effect drops out (NSA levels are traditionally never revised).
- It also means that there could be distortions with the April 2026 housing CPI prints as BLS has yet to determine how to treat a 6 month change vs October's "missing" month.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Scale Seller Dec'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Spread
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- -50,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 4.25-4.0 ref 96.915
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Remain Mixed, Focus Still on Nvidia Earnings
Nov-19 19:30
- US equity indexes held inside session ranges late Wednesday, the DJIA underperforming as it looked to extend session lows. Markets still digesting the October FOMC minutes release that showed rate cut opinions "strongly differed". Participants await the release of Nvidia Q3 earnings after the close.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down down 144.48 points (-0.31%) at 45946.4, S&P E-Minis down 6.5 points (-0.1%) at 6632.75, Nasdaq up 24.7 points (0.1%) at 22456.95.
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USDJPY TECHS: Clears to New Highs
Nov-19 19:30
- RES 4: 157.87 High Jan 10
- RES 3: 157.27 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 157.24 2.382 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 156.80 High Nov 19
- PRICE: 156.79 @ 17:25 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
USDJPY rallied again Wednesday, topping several resistance levels to extend the bull run. This also confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 157.24 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average is required to signal scope for a corrective pullback.
