FOREX: Bloomberg Dollar Index Extends Weekly Decline, Fresh 2024 Lows

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22  
• RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3424 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3276 @ 16:04 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.3234/3207 Intraday low / High Apr 3 1 
• SUP 2: 1.3099 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2923 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10 

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and fresh cycle highs this week reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434 next, the Sep 26 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.3099, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback appears corrective. 

RRP usage rises to $171.780B this afternoon from $137.951B yesterday. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B. The number of counterparties at 45.

According to a new study from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania, “Large majorities of U.S. adults support the role of the courts and Congress in serving as checks on presidential power, even though the public has less trust in all three branches of the federal government than it does in many other American institutions and professions”.

• The study notes: “A majority of Americans (60%) think the country is going in the wrong direction and a slim majority (54%) think a year from now the economy will be worse than it is today.
• “A strong majority (69%) of Americans say the president should follow a Supreme Court ruling, even if the president believes the ruling prevents him from protecting the country from a terrorist attack.”
• An Economist/YouGov survey out this morning found that Trump's net approval on his handling of the economy has dropped to -12 (last week -7; start of term +12).
• The YouGov survey also notes that his approval on handling of immigration has dropped to -5 (start of term +11), indicating that, taking with the above data on presidential overreach, Trump is now vulnerable on his core issue. Should this trend continue, Trump may face more resistance from moderate Republicans in Congress facing challenging midterm elections.

Figure 1: Response to the Following Statements

Source: Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania.