US TSY FUTURES: BLOCKs: Jun'25 2Y Sale, 10Y Ultra Buy

US President Donald Trump has delivered a wide-ranging press conference alongside Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House. 

• On tariffs, Trump indicates that tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be coming shortly as the US needs to reshore pharma production. He namechecks Ireland as a pharma producer and says: “All I have to do is impose a tariff… The higher the tariff, the faster they come,” referring to companies relocating their manufacturing to the US.
• He says, “its going to be like we have on cars… We have, as you know, a 25% tariff on cars [steel and aluminum],” adding “that category fits right now [for pharma].” Asked about his timeline for implementation, he says: “not too distant future”. Trump declines to offer any information on potential semiconductor tariffs.
• When asked to clarify comments yesterday when he suggested a Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy was a “mistake”, Trump reiterates that the mistake was on the behalf of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and former President Joe Biden for allowing the war to start.
• He again blames Zelenskyy for starting the war, “you don’t start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope some people give you some missiles.” Trump adds that there are, “some proposals on stopping the Ukraine war very soon.”
• Trump says Iran cannot be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and notes the talks in Oman on Saturday. He acknowledges that Tehran could be stringing the US along by delaying talks.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/14 $8B #Morgan Stanley $2B 4NC3 +113, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+138, $2.5B 6NC5 +118, $3B 11NC10 +128
• 04/14 $1B #HP Inc $500M 5Y +145, $500M 10Y +175
• 04/14 $600M #Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line +5Y +100
• 04/14 $Benchmark BNY Mellon 2NC1 +100a, 2NC1 SOFR, 4NC3 +120a, 4NC3 SOFR
• 04/14 $Benchmark JP Morgan 6NC5 +135a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +145a

PM Mark Carney's centre-left Liberal party remains in a strong position to win an outright majority in the House of Commons according to the latest opinion polling and political betting markets. Only a single poll over the past week, from Mainstreet Research on 13 April, has shown the centre-right Conservatives leading. Even then, if the 44-42% split in the Conservatives' favour was repeated in a federal election, it would likely not prove sufficient for Pierre Poilievre's party to win an overall majority given the Canadian first-past-the-post electoral system. 

• The next few days could prove an important milestone in the election campaign, with the French and English-language leaders' debates taking place.
• This first debate will be conducted in French and starts at 2000ET. PM and centre-left Liberal party leader Mark Carney, centre-right Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, as well as Yves-Francois Blanchet from the regionalist Bloc Quebecois, Jagmeet Singh from the left-wing New Democratic Party, and Jonathan Pedneault from the environmentalist Greens will participate.
• The second leaders’ debate takes place in Montreal, this time conducted in English. The debate will have the same five individuals as participated in the French-language debate. The event starts at 1900ET.

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 8-Poll Moving Average

Source: Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Abacus Data, Innovative Research, Angus Reid, Pollara, MQO Research, Leger, Research Co., Ekos, Ipsos, Pallas Data, MNI