SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCKs: Dec'25 & Sep'26 SOFR Call Spds

• Looks like the 2.80% Yield level is now too close not to be tested for Bund, now at 2.79%.
• For outright future levels, most will then look at the August low, situated at 128.64.

Looking further out in Yield, reference 128.78:

• 2.85% = 128.17.
• 2.90% = 127.66.
• 2.94% = 127.26 (2025 high in Yield and highest since Oct 2023).

• +3,000 TUZ5 104-06.5, post time offer at 0635:42ET, DV01 $107,000.
• The 2Y contract trades 104-06.25 last

• In FX, despite today’s sell-off in EURUSD, the trend set-up remains bullish and weakness is considered corrective. Note that the pair has recently pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1611. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key medium-term support at 1.1392, Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.1829, Jul 1 high. A breach would resume the primary uptrend.
• The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. However, today’s sell-off undermines the bull theme and attention is on key short-term support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.3315, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger rally.
• USDJPY is trading higher today but for now, remains inside its range. Resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. This would also undermine the recent bear threat. A breach would open 149.12, 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started in August.