STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: SOFR White Pack

• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading lower this week, however, for now, price remains above the August lows. Recently, resistance at the 50-day EMA at 129.74 has been pierced. A clear breach of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery within the multi-month range. This would open 130.06, the Aug 14 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch lies at 128.64. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
• A bear cycle in Gilt futures is in play and a fresh cycle low Monday, and again today, reinforces current conditions. The continuation of the bear leg has resulted in a break of the 90.00 handle. Clearance of this level strengthens the downtrend and maintains the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 89.68, the Jan 15 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high.

DUX5 107.50c, bought for 5 in 3k.

• Looks like the 2.80% Yield level is now too close not to be tested for Bund, now at 2.79%.
• For outright future levels, most will then look at the August low, situated at 128.64.

Looking further out in Yield, reference 128.78:

• 2.85% = 128.17.
• 2.90% = 127.66.
• 2.94% = 127.26 (2025 high in Yield and highest since Oct 2023).