STIR: BLOCK, SOFR Red Pack

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3935 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3855 High Oct 21
• PRICE: 1.3775 @ 16:33 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 1.3705/3665 High Dec 16 / High Feb 24
• SUP 2: 1.3596 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3521 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone despite fading slightly into the Friday close. The week’s rally has strengthened the bullish theme, however. Price has cleared the bull trigger at the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and has also traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards the 2.0% 10-dma envelope of 1.3935. Initial support is seen at 1.3705, the recent breakout level. A pullback would be considered corrective and would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6819 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6747/84 20-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6695 Low Mar 1
• PRICE: 0.6619 @ 16:25 GMT Mar 10
• SUP 1: 0.6547 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD traded higher into the Friday close. Nonetheless, the downtrend remains intact, with sell-on-rallies the dominant theme. Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces and strengthens a bearish near-term view. The break lower confirmed a bear flag formation on the daily chart and prices have cleared key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

Robust fixed income option volumes were fairly evenly mixed Friday. Put buyers continued apace, while call buying continued for the third consecutive session as underlying futures surged following a stronger than expected NFP jobs gain of +311k and SVIB bank takeover by the FDIC - that had a larger impact on tempering rate hike expectations.

• SOFR Options:
  • Block, 20,000 SFRZ3 94.00/94.87 put spds, 25.0 ref 95.13 to -.14
  • Block, 20,000 SFRU 94.06/94.87 put spds, 27.0 ref 94.845 to -.84
  • Block, 15,000 SFRJ3 94.87/95.06 call spds, 1.5 ref 94.675
  • Block, 30,000 SFRU3 95.87/97.00 call spds, 4.0 ref 94.78
  • Block, 20,000 SFRU3 94.12/94.87 put spds, 27.5 ref 94.78
  • 2,000 OQH3 95.25/95.37/95.43/95.56 call condors ref 95.15
  • Block, 10,000 SFRK3 94.18/94.31 put spds, 3.5 ref 94.505
  • Block, 4,000 SFRM3 94.75/94.87/95.00 put flys, 1.0 ref 94.505
  • Block/screen, 5,000 OQJ3 96.00/2QJ3 96.87 call spds, 1.5
  • Block, 10,000 SFRK3 94.18/94.31 put spds, 3.5 ref 94.505
  • Block, 10,000 SFRM3 94.75/95.00 call spds, 4.25 ref 94.505
  • Block, 4,500 OQK3 94.62/95.00 put spds vs. 95.59/0.12%
  • 29,000 SFRN3 94.68/94.87 call spds, 6.0 ref 94.535
  • 7,000 SFRH3 95.00 calls, 0.5
  • 4,500 SFRM3 95.745 calls, 1.5 ref 94.515
  • Block, +5,000 SFRZ3 94.00/95.00 strangles 2.0-1.5 over 94.25/95.25 strangles
  • 4,000 SFRJ3 95.25 calls, 1.25 ref 94.52
  • 4,000 SFRM3 95.00 calls, 4.25-4.5 ref 94.525
  • 4,000 SFRM3 95.25 calls, 2.5 ref 94.52
• Treasury Options:
  • 50,000 TYM3 107/108 put spds, 9 ref 113-03 to -03.5
  • 2,500 FVJ 108.75/109.25 call spds, 6
  • +7,000 TYJ3 111/114 call over risk reversals, 0.0 ref 112-19
  • +10.000 TYJ3 110.5/114 call over risk reversals, 0.0 vs 112-07.5
  • +5,000 TYK 108/109 put spds, 8.0
  • +7,500 USJ3 123/125 put spds, 25
  • 16,000 TYJ/TYK 111 put calendar spd, 25 ref 112-00.5
  • 15,000 TYJ3 110/111 put spds, 13 ref 112-02.5
  • 25,500 TYJ3 107.5/108.5/109.5 put flys, 4.0 ref 112-00.5
  • 5,000 TYJ3 112/113.25 call spds, 35 ref 112-09
  • 6,500 TYJ 109 puts, 4 ref 112-10 to -09