US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 5Y Buy

Short end underlying rates trading at/near post ISM services data lows, projected rate cut pricing steady to mildly lower vs. morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 steady at -0.5bp, Jun'25 at -8.2bp (-8.4bp), Jul'25 at -23.8bp (-25.5bp), Sep'25 -43.8bp (-46.9bp).

• -10,000 SFRU5 96.43/96.62 call spds, 3.25
• +4,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.87 2x1 put spds, 0.5 ref 96.14
• 2,000 SFRH6 97.18/98.25 call spds vs. 0QH6 97.25/98.25 call spds, 2.5 net/0QH6 over
• +2,500 SFRH6 97.50/98.00 call spds, 7.5 ref 96.67
• +5,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.87 put spds 2.0 vs. 96.195/0.05%
• +4,000 0QM5/0QU5 97.00/97.50/98.00 call fly spd, 0.5 net

• RES 4: 113-22   1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing 
• RES 3: 113-04   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
• RES 2: 112-20+ High MAy 1 and key new-term resistance
• RES 1: 112-01+ High Apr 2
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-00+ @ 11:36 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 110-31/30+ Low May 5 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 110-00    100-dma
• SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle

A sharp reversal lower in Treasury futures last week undermines the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-30+. A clear breach of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURUSD (9th May) 1.1400p, sold at 0.0079 in ~1.1k.