FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: Large Nov'25 FF Sale

A new survey from the Wall Street Journal/AP-NORC has found that “the share of people who say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living fell to 25%, a record low in surveys dating to 1987. More than three-quarters said they lack confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own, the poll found.”

• The Journal notes: “Nearly 70% of people said they believe the American dream—that if you work hard, you will get ahead—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.”
• The poll found “a somewhat brightening view of the current economy. Some 44% rated the economy as excellent or good, up from 38% a year ago, though still a smaller share than the 56% who now view the economy as not good or poor.”

Figure 1: “People like me have a good chance of improving our standard of living”

Source: Wall Street Journal, AP-NORC

• RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2   
• RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4 
• RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• PRICE: 1.3399 @ 16:04 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 1.3340 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. However, Tuesday’s sell-off undermines the bull theme and attention is on key short-term support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. It has been pierced, a clear  break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.3315, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger rally.       

Tuesday's Europe rates/bonds options flow included:

• DUV5 107.20/107.10/106.90p ladder, sold at 3 in 4k
• DUX5 107.50c, bought for 5 in 3k
• ERH6 98.12/98.25/98.4375/98.5625c condor, bought for 3.25 in 5k
• ERM6 98.31/98.43cs, bought for 2.5 in 10k (40k all week)
• SFIU6 97.40/97.50cs, bought for 0.75 in 20k