US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'26 2Y Sale

The USD has pared losses made in the US session, with equities paring gains (Nasdaq notably now up just 1% after earlier being up 1.8%) as anticipation of further news in the US/Israel-Iran conflict lingers. Current focus is on a letter apparently addressed to the American people by Iranian  President Pezeshkian, which per Iran's Tasnim and IRNA (and Pezeshkian's deputy head of communications) is due out soon (at 1:15ET it was due out within an hour, per Tasnim, though some translations appeared to suggest it would be out in coming "hours").

• The letter would be out a few hours before US President Trump's 9pm address to the nation; recall Trump's Truth Social post earlier today that triggered a brief risk-on rally with "Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!" - it's unclear whether Trump  was referring to Pezeshkian here.
• Additionally, the NY Times reports that "The Pentagon is doubling its fleet of Air Force A-10 attack planes in the Middle East, aircraft that support advancing ground troops, even as President Trump says he wants to end the Iran war in two to three weeks."

• We’ll continue to focus on private sector job creation as a better gauge of labor market health.
• Bloomberg consensus looks for a 75k increase, which ex-strike rebound would sit a little stronger than recent averages of 18k over three months or 34k over six months.
• However, as for some time now, private payrolls growth has been heavily dependent on the cyclically insensitive health & social assistance category.
• Strip this out and private sector jobs fell by an average -29k per month over the latest three months and -16k over the latest six months. That’s after 390k jobs lost in 2025 and with only the first three months of that year reflecting heavy downward revisions under the annual benchmarking process with further downward revisions possibly in the pipeline judging by latest QCEW data.
• Recapping the breadth of weakness in last month’s report, Food & drinking places led declines (-30k after +13k), along with education (-16k after +13k), manufacturing (-12k after +5k), construction (-11k after +48k), transportation (-11k after -12k) and information (-11k after -19k). The largest increase came from financial activities with 10k but that followed a -30k hit in January.

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.46 High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 158.65 @ 16:36 BST Apr 1  
• SUP 1: 158.28 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 157.42 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The breach of the 160.00 handle strengthens the bullish condition. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 157.42, the 50-day EMA.