US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 2Y & 5Y Buys

PM Mark Carney's centre-left Liberal party remains in a strong position to win an outright majority in the House of Commons according to the latest opinion polling and political betting markets. Only a single poll over the past week, from Mainstreet Research on 13 April, has shown the centre-right Conservatives leading. Even then, if the 44-42% split in the Conservatives' favour was repeated in a federal election, it would likely not prove sufficient for Pierre Poilievre's party to win an overall majority given the Canadian first-past-the-post electoral system. 

• The next few days could prove an important milestone in the election campaign, with the French and English-language leaders' debates taking place.
• This first debate will be conducted in French and starts at 2000ET. PM and centre-left Liberal party leader Mark Carney, centre-right Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, as well as Yves-Francois Blanchet from the regionalist Bloc Quebecois, Jagmeet Singh from the left-wing New Democratic Party, and Jonathan Pedneault from the environmentalist Greens will participate.
• The second leaders’ debate takes place in Montreal, this time conducted in English. The debate will have the same five individuals as participated in the French-language debate. The event starts at 1900ET.

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 8-Poll Moving Average

Source: Liaison Strategies, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Abacus Data, Innovative Research, Angus Reid, Pollara, MQO Research, Leger, Research Co., Ekos, Ipsos, Pallas Data, MNI

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: 113-00   Round number support 
• RES 2: 112-08   High Apr 8   
• RES 1: 111-01+/111-20 20-day EMA / High Apr 9 
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-14+ @ 16:58 BST Apr 14 
• SUP 1: 109-08   Low Apr 11
• SUP 2: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 108-21   Low Feb 19
• SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 ‘24 and a key support 

Treasury futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s reversal lower. Price has traded through an important support - a trendline at 110-01+, drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this line would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 108-26+, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 111-01+, the 20-day EMA.             

• Stocks are paring gains ahead midday as US$ reversed early gains Monday morning. Information Technology sector shares still lead gainers in the first half despite ongoing tariff uncertainty after denying that the US had excluded smartphones, computers, and other consumer electronics from tariffs over the weekend.
• "There was no tariff exception" announcement Trump said, while officials are "looking at chips, whole electronics supply chain; chips to be assessed in national Security tariff probes." Nevertheless, "markets very strong once they got used to tariffs" Trump just posted.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 67.46 points (0.17%) at 40267.89, S&P E-Minis up 18.25 points (0.34%) at 5408.25, while the tech heavy Nasdaq is down 8 points (0%) at 16713.78.
• Eurostoxx 50 future falling hard shortly after the cash close, with LVMH earnings (the second largest stock in the index by market cap) broadly missing expectations: fashion & leather organic sales down 5% vs. Exp. Down 0.55%, prompting organic revenue growth of -3% vs. Exp, +1.1%.
• Late morning gainers included Palantir Technologies +5.99%, Dell Technologies +5.13%, Western Digital +4.48%, Seagate Technology Holdings +3.99% and Micron Technology +3.70%. Other gainers included Charles River Laboratories +6.12%, Estee Lauder Cos +5.20% and Generac Holdings +3.76%.
• Bucking the IT gains, Nvidia reversed course from 114.29 high to 110.52 at the moment. Other laggers included DaVita -4.23%, Humana -3.27%, Southwest Airlines -2.56%, UnitedHealth Group -2.50% and Broadcom -1.90%.
• Earnings expected Tuesday: PNC Financial Services, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Sandisk Corp, Albertsons Cos, Citigroup, Interactive Brokers, JB Hunt Transport, United Airlines and Omnicom Group.