STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Sale

• The Euro has moderately underperformed G10 peers to start the week, and despite EURUSD rallying back above 1.14 earlier today, spot has gravitated back towards 1.1360 at typing and remains comfortably off the 1.1473 cycle highs. As a reminder, price action last week saw EURUSD substantially narrow the gap to 1.1495, the Feb 10 2022 high and a key medium term technical point.
• Should the volatile price action continue, 1.1608 (Nov 9 2021 high) is a notable level on the topside, whereas initial support is not seen until the prior breakout level at 1.1144.
• JP Morgan noted that last week’s retraction in reciprocal tariff rates may have marked the peak in tariff war unpredictability and vol, but overlaid against the massive ratchet higher against China, suggests that such relief may be shallow or incomplete.
• The bank adds that while EM FX can stay under pressure, the case for EUR is reasonably intact, helped in part by the postponement of its 20% reciprocal rate, which can allow the themes of fresh fiscal support and regional self-sufficiency to bullishly support the single currency. Consistent with this, EUR has been the most-bought currency on JPM’s high-frequency flow metrics over the last two weeks.
• The ECB is almost unanimously expected to deliver a sixth consecutive 25bp cut on Thursday. MNI’s full preview of the meeting will be published tomorrow.

Morgan Stanley the first bank to issue new debt upon exiting earning blackout.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/14 $Benchmark Morgan Stanley 4NC3 +130a, 4NC3 SOFR, 6NC5 +135a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +145a
• 04/11 - No new corporate bond issuance Friday, tariff-tied uncertainty keeping issuers on the sidelines, only $16.6B issued in April so far.

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.33% (-0.04), volume: $2.584T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32% (-0.04), volume: $1.046T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.32% (-0.04), volume: $1.007T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)