US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 5Y Sale

• Spot gold rose to another record high at $3,991/oz earlier in Tuesday’s session, despite a stronger US dollar, as safe-haven flows continue to push bullion higher amid ongoing government instability in the US, Japan and France.
• Spot is currently up by 0.5% at $3,980, just short of psychological round number resistance at $4,000.
• Citing ETF inflows and central-bank buying, Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,900, from $4,300.
• From a technical perspective, a bull cycle in gold remains in play, reinforced by today’s fresh cycle high. A break of the $4,000 handle would open $4,035.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3,775.0, the 20-day EMA.
• In contrast, silver has pulled back sharply today, falling by 1.8% to $47.6/oz, having hit its highest level since April 2011 yesterday.
• Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with sights on $48.838 next, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $45.038, the 20-day EMA.
• Meanwhile, crude prices are steady following a slight rise yesterday after a smaller than anticipated OPEC+ supply hike and soft Saudi OSPs.
• WTI Nov 25 is broadly unchanged at $61.7/bbl.
• WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition, and gains are considered corrective. Initial support is at $60.40, the Oct 2 low, while initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. 

Core European yields pulled back slightly Tuesday, with bull flattening across most curves partially reversing Monday's steepening.

• Yields started off on the ascent in morning trade, following on from Monday's weakness (triggered by apprehension over Japanese fiscal expansion following the LDP leadership elections).
• But tthey fell steadily over the course of the European afternoon however, with a sharp pullback in global equities boosting core instruments into the cash close.
• In data, German August factory orders were very weak, driven by softer foreign demand.
• On the day, the German curve leaned bull flatter, with Gilts more clearly bull flattening and outperforming German counterparts.
• Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widened again, though this time OATs weren't the underperformers, with French spreads steadying after being sent higher after Monday's surprise resignation by PM Lecornu. Instead, Spain and Portugal 10Y/Bund widened 1+bp each.
• Wednesday's calendar includes an appearance by BOE's Pill and ECB's Muller, Elderson and Escriva, and German industrial production data (following on from factory orders).
• However most attention will be on France where ex-PM Lecornu will attempt to break a political deadlock ahead of telling President Macron whether a sustainable coalition government is workable or other alternatives (eg snap elections) should be pursued.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.3bps at 2.004%, 5-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.298%, 10-Yr is down 1bps at 2.709%, and 30-Yr is down 0.3bps at 3.293%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.9bps at 3.983%, 5-Yr is down 0.5bps at 4.148%, 10-Yr is down 1.7bps at 4.719%, and 30-Yr is down 2.1bps at 5.534%.
• Italian BTP spread up 0.6bps at 82.7bps / Spanish up 1.1bps at 54.8bps 

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.78 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 151.21 High Mar 28 & Oct 07
• PRICE: 151.17 @ 16:39 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 149.05 Low Oct 6 
• SUP 2: 148.10/147.67 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 146.59 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low 
• SUP 4: 145.49 Low Sept 17

A bullish theme remains intact in USDJPY following Monday's strong start to the week. The move higher has resulted in a breach of resistance at 149.96, the Sep 26 high and a key short-term resistance. This has exposed the key medium-term resistance at 150.92, the Aug 1 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 22. Monday’s intraday low at 149.05 is first support.