US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 5Y Sale

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17 
• RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Sep 23 and a pivot level 
• PRICE: 1.3439 @ 16:37 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
• SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle          

Short-term bearish conditions in GBPUSD remain in place - for now. Initial key resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a near-term pivot level. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. Recent weakness resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. A support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low, has been pierced. A clear breach of this support would open 1.3282, the Aug 6 low.           

RRP usage retreats to new multi-year low of $4.622B (lowest level since early April 2021) with 14 counterparties this afternoon from $21.776B on Monday. Compares to this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.

US President Donald Trump will welcome Finnish President Alexander Stubb to the White House on Thursday for a working meeting. Stubb has one of the closest personal relationships with Trump of any European backer of Ukraine.

• Last week, Stubb told reporters in Helsinki that he believes it is only a matter of time before Trump takes action to penalise Russian President Vladimir Putin for his failure to agree to ceasefire proposals Trump laid out during their meeting in Alaska.
• Stubb said, “Having seen that carrots rarely work with the Russians, he has moved to the stick stage. Now it’s just a question of how big the stick is going to be.”
• Politico notes that options for Trump “range from tighter sanctions, including secondary sanctions, to higher tariffs and even making greater use of the U.S. military’s arsenal of weapons that can penetrate deep into Russian territory.”
• A new YouGov survey has found that US adults increasingly support more US military aid to Ukraine. 33% of US adults now believe the US should increase military aid, a reversal from earlier this year when a plurality of US adults believed the US should decrease the level of military aid provided. The survey shows a trend reversal among Republicans, with only 35% of Republican adults supporting decreasing/cutting aid to Ukraine, down from 60% in March. 

Figure 1: Do you favour the US ...? (% of US adult citizens)

Source: YouGov