EQUITIES: Bitcoin and US Equities are extending gains
* A two Months high for for Bitcoin (highest since 24th Feb), next upside resistance is seen at $9...
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: JOLTS, ISMs, Regional Fed Data
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 01-Apr 0900 Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook
- 01-Apr 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (49.8, 49.9)
- 01-Apr 1000 Construction Spending MoM (-0.2%, 0.3%)
- 01-Apr 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.74M, 7.655M), Rate (4.6%, 4.6%)
- 01-Apr 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.266M, 3.186M), Rate (2.1%, --)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM Manufacturing (50.3, 49.5)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM Prices Paid (62.4, 64.6)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM New Orders (48.6, 48.4)
- 01-Apr 1000 ISM Employment (47.6, 47.2)
- 01-Apr 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (4.6, --)
- 01-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill & $50B 14D CMB auctions
TARIFFS: WaPo-WH Draft Proposal Has Tariffs ~20% On 'At Least Most Imports'
The Washington Post reports that "White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20 percent on at least most imports to the United States, three people familiar with the matter said,". While the looming 'reciprocal' tariffs to be imposed from April 2 have been top of the news cycle for some time, there has been very little concrete information about their nature. As such, these comments come as some of the first indications about what level the levies might settle at.
- WaPo: "Wilbur Ross, who served as commerce secretary during Trump’s first term, said the White House is considering setting one flat rate on imports of between 15 percent and 25 percent. He said administration officials are wrestling with the complicated question of how to change existing tariffs on countries that are higher or lower than that amount to align with the new target. "
- Ross adds that “there are some people in the White House who are undoubtedly more extreme” than Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick, who are seen to support different rates for different countries. Highlights it is Trump who will make the undisputed final call.
- The story cautions that despite the draft proposal mentioned, there is no final decision yet. The main options remain either raising tariffs on almost all products from almost all countries in an effort to ramp up the quantity of funds brought in by such measures. The other is applying different rates to different countries, ensuring full reciprocity.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 112-23+ 1.618 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 3: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 2: 112-01 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 111-22+ High Mar 31
- PRICE: 111-20 @ 11:05 BST Apr 1
- SUP 1: 110-23 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-09+/06 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: 110-00 High Feb 7 and a key support
- SUP 4: 109-20 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
Treasury futures are holding on to their latest gains following the recovery from last week’s low of 110-06+ (Mar 27). The outlook remains bullish and attention is on key resistance at 112-01, the Mar 4 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13, and open 112-13, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 110-23, the 20-day EMA.
