FED: Bills' Share Of Balance Sheet Starting To Pick Up (1/2)

The October data could include several of the major categories that we include in our Core CPI consensus tables: used cars and trucks and new vehicles; airfares; lodging away from home; and various communications and medical prices (for headline CPI, gasoline data could be published).

• At least one analyst (Nomura) speculates that the BLS could estimate rents and OER as well as rent data are collected through the Housing Survey and not the Commodities and Services Price survey.
• Below is MNI's collation of sell-side consensus on individual categories. It expresses the average M/M inflation rate over October / November, either from specific month-by-month estimates, or by halving the 2-month change.

We won't get aggregate CPI levels for October, but as part of the November report's unprecedented format, the BLS will include data for some but not all subcomponents for October.

• The vast majority of price data collection are collected by BLS employees in person or by phone, which obviously wasn't possible in October due to the federal government shutdown. However over 20% of the basket is taken from a variety of sources that don't entirely require personal collection, relying instead on online prices and private data providers.
• The BLS hasn't announced which components this will include for October. The BLS previously noted that it "expects the number of publishable indexes to be small".
• We don't know how the BLS will present such data either, as while it could simply publish the usual tables with % changes for both October and November (they advised "news release and database update will not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing"), this could clash with most items which would only have the November data (potentially with just the indices published and the 2-month changes noted).
• This could make it difficult to quickly interpret the data; the one sure thing is that we will get a % Y/Y reading for the main aggregates (headline and core CPI) because a comparison to November 2024 indices will be possible, though we won't get % M/M readings as October aggregates won't be compiled.

• RES 4: 184.63 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.43 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 183.16 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 182.73 @ 16:34 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 181.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 179.09 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.50 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the trend. Sights are on 184.63, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 181.20, the 20-day EMA.