FED: Bessent Touts Models Suggesting 2.5-3.25% Rates, Chair Pick Around Davos
Speaking in Minneapolis, US Treasury Secretary Bessent offers a range of model estimates of where Fe...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17
- RES 3: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3416 High Oct 21
- RES 1: 1.3385 High Dec 04
- PRICE: 1.3314 @ 16:35 GMT Dec 09
- SUP 1: 1.3267 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3235 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26
- SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger
A bull theme in GBPUSD remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The breach of the 50-day EMA undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3452, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3235, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.
BOC: Analyst Outlook For Dec BOC: BofA, ING Holding Out For More Cuts (2/2)
Some non-Canadian institutions see the BOC's easing cycle as not-quite-over: BofA expects two 25bp cuts early next year, with ING eyeing a final 25bp cut. See table below.
BOC: Analyst Outlook For Dec BOC: Canadian Banks Start To Eye Hikes (1/2)
Analysts are unanimous on a December rate hold by the BOC, with markets pricing in just 1-2bp of cuts in what looks to be the most straightforward decision this year. (MNI's full BOC preview is here.)
- In line with market pricing, almost all analysts have removed any further rate cuts from their outlook since the October meeting and, latterly, the November labour market report.
- Some have started to see rate hikes by early 2027 enter their base case (Scotiabank already had hikes as part of their outlook).
- No Canadian analysts see further cuts. See table below.
