US-CHINA: Bessent Says Tariff Standoff With China 'Unsustainable' - Bloomberg

Apr-22 16:29

Bloomberg reporting that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told investors today that "the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate."

  • According to Bloomberg, "Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible..." Bloomberg adds that, "Bessent also said the world’s top two countries essentially have a trade embargo in place..."
  • The report comes amid reports that neither US President Donald Trump nor Chinese President Xi Jinping appear willing to take the first step toward initiating high-level trade talks.
  • Politico noted this morning: “Trump is insisting on one-on-one talks with [President Xi] — and this has stifled other diplomatic efforts to halt the worsening trade war...” Politico noted on Sunday that Trump's "refusal to allow informal diplomatic outreach to bridge the gap between the White House and Beijing is slowing progress toward a possible deal."
  • Meanwhile, China has extended outreach to Japan, South Korea, the EU, and the UK, to bolster trade ties. The Global Times wrote after a call between UK Foreign Minister David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi today: "China and the UK share a responsibility to uphold the post-WWII world order."
  • Reuters notes that Chinese Premier Li Qiang sent a letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, "calling for a coordinated response to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures..."
  • German outlet SZ reports China's leadership wants to lift the sanctions against current and former members of the European Parliament, seen as part of a broader move to drive a wedge between Washington and Brussels ahead of a potential China trip by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen later this year. 

Historical bullets

CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON

Mar-23 11:22
  • CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
  • CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION

US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows

Mar-21 21:00

Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.

  • That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
  • This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
  • We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
  • Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
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USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Mar-21 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
  • RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
  • SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support   
  • SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
  • SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
  • SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.