UKRAINE: Bessent-Minerals Deal Gives Trump Stronger Hand In Talks w/Russia
Speaking to Fox Business, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that the US can use the minerals deal signed with Ukraine 'to show the Russian leadership that there is no daylight between the goals of Ukraine and the US'. Says that the partnership will 'accelerate Ukraine's economy'. Bessent claims that the deal 'will allow [President Donald] Trump to negotiate with Russia on a stronger basis.'
- The deal, signed in a low-key ceremony on 30 April, could give greater impetus for a peace agreement, at least from the Ukrainian gov't. While specific details of the deal are not yet forthcoming, NYT reports it "will create a U.S.-controlled fund that would receive revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources,"
- Security guarantees from the US are not included, but the fact that the US will have a vested financial interest in Ukraine remaining a sovereign nation could see Kyiv open up to the prospect of either direct peace talks with Russia, or giving its blessing for further US-Russia negotiations. On the US side, a desire to see the deal paying dividends as soon as possible will also provide additional impetus to talks.
Map of Critical Mineral Deposits in Ukraine
Source: NYT, Conflict and Environment Observatory, Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
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FINLAND: PM Commits 3% Of GDP On Defence by '29, Withdraws From Landmine Treaty
PM Petteri Orpo has confirmed that Finland's defence spending will increase "to at least 3% of GDP", with Finance Minister Riikka Purra saying that the sum will be increased by 'around E3bln by 2029.' Orpo says that "Russia is and will remain a threat to the whole of Europe". Earlier, Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov claimed that President Vladimir Putin is open to normalising relations with Finland despite the "deplorable state of ties." Speaking in London on 31 March, President Alexander Stubb said that 'Finland must be mentally prepared for the fact that at some point relations with Russia will begin to open up.'
- Orpo says that Finland and Europe 'need to evaluate all measures to boost defence'. As part of the focus on 'all measures' Orpo confirms that Finland will join Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, which bans all anti-personnel landmines.
- Finland is the NATO member that holds the longest land border with Russia. After Finland joined the alliance in 2023, NATO's total land border with Russia increased from 745 miles (1,215km) in length to 1,584 miles (2,555km).
- The Finnish gov't has accused Russia of waging 'hybrid warfare' on Finland, alleging that Moscow has funneled migrants to the Russo-Finnish border in large numbers in an effort to destabilise the Nordic country socially and politically.
- Withdrawing from the Ottawa convention, though, would indicate a more pressing concern in Helsinki that Russia could eventually launch a ground offensive against Finnish territory.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Sale
- -2,500 TYM5 111-23.5 (+16.5), sale through 111-24 post time bid at 0701:41ET, DV01 $158,000. The 10Y contract trades 111-24 last.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trendline Resistance In Gilts Remains Exposed
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain firm for now. Recent gains are considered corrective, however, the breach of the 20-day EMA and a print above resistance at 129.41, the Jan 14 low, strengthens a bullish theme and opens the 130.00 handle and 130.26, the 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
- The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, recent gains highlight a corrective bounce and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term. Sights are on 92.49, a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the short-term bull cycle and open 93.01, the Mar 20 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 90.55, the Mar 27 low.
