OIL: Bessent meeting China’s He In Malaysia Probably A Week From Tomorrow
Bessent meeting China’s He In Malaysia Probably A Week From Tomorrow
Bessent: “China did a substantial, unprovoked escalation last week. We were unable to get in touch with them. Since then, it's been IMF/World Bank week. They have had working level people here, there have been meetings. The vice premier, who is my counterpart, and I will be speaking this evening at around 830, 900. And then he and I and a delegation will meet in Malaysia probably a week from tomorrow to prepare for the two presidents to meet. Again, I think that things have deescalated. We hope that China will show the respect that we have shown them, and I am confident that President Trump, because of his relationship with President XI, will be able to get things back on a good course.”
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FED: Instant Answers: Fed Cuts 25BP; Signals 2 More This Year; Miran Dissents
- Fed funds rate range maximum: 4.25%
- Number of dissenters to size of rate move: ONE. Miran preferred 50bp cut. The lowest dot, if Miran's, suggests he saw 50 bp cuts for Sept, Oct, Dec to end the year at 2.875%.
- Number of dissenters preferring a larger cut: ONE. Miran
- Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2025: 3.6%
- Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2026: 3.4%
- Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2027: 3.1%
- Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2028: 3.1%
- Median projection of longer run fed funds rate: 3.0%
- Number of 2025 dots > 4.125%: ONE
- Number of 2025 dots > 3.875%: SEVEN
- Number of 2025 dots < 3.875%: TEN
- Number of 2025 dots < 3.625%: ONE
MNI: FED cuts FUNDS RATE 25BP TO 4%-4.25%; VOTE 11-1
- MNI: FED CUTS FUNDS RATE 25BP TO 4%-4.25%; VOTE 11-1
- GOV MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF LARGER 50BP CUT
- MEDIAN FOMC MEMBER SEES 2 MORE CUTS THIS YEAR, 1 CUT '26
- 9 OFFICIALS SEE 2 MORE CUTS THIS YEAR, 9 SEE 1 OR FEWER
- LOWEST DOT AT 2.875% FOR 2025, 2.625% IN 2026
- MEDIAN INFLATION PROJECTIONS REVISED UP TO 2.6% IN 2026
- MEDIAN UNEMPL PROJECTION REVISED DOWN TO 4.4% IN '26
- FED: 'DOWNSIDE EMPLOYMENT RISKS HAVE RISEN'
- FED: INFLATION HAS MOVED UP, REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
FED: Likely URLs For Fed Decision
Links (likely URLs based on previous meetings, would only go live at 1400ET):
