POLAND: Belarus Border To Be Sealed Until Further Notice Due To Zapad-2025

• Treasuries are mildly firmer after a late open with a Japan holiday, with benchmark tenors within Friday’s range.
• They see mixed European spillover, with Gilts outperforming as they retrace losses last week whilst EGBs underperform.
• With such a quiet docket, expect headlines/flow to dominate proceedings with tomorrow’s CPI report looming large.  
• Today’s main scheduled event is President Trump’s press conference at 1000ET, with the focus set to be on law enforcement in the District of Columbia but always with scope for discussions on wide-ranging topics.
• Some areas worth watching: White House administration to issue an executive order clarifying gold tariffs in “the near future”, announcement of the new BLS commissioner due after Trump fired McEntarfer after the weak July payrolls report, and geopol-related headlines ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
• Cash yields are 1-5-2bp lower from Friday’s close.
• TYU5 trades at 11-29+ (+03) on extremely thin cumulative volumes of 145k. It holds its ground, with resistance seen at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high) and support at 110-19+ (Jul 24 low).
• Data: None scheduled
• Fedspeak: None scheduled
• Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $82B 13-W, $73B 26-W bills (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump press conference on law enforcement (1000ET)

EGBs lead the pullback from session highs seen over the past couple of hours, with both Tsys & gilts outperforming Bunds on the day.

• This is presumably owing to Europe’s sensitivity to inflation linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the market takes a more sanguine outlook on the prospect for a breakthrough re: a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
• A related uptick from session lows in crude oil weighs on wider core global FI.

SFIH6 96.70 calls 3.5K given at 5