FED: Beige Book: Labor Market Remains Subdued
Compared with the previous Beige Book, October's arguably shows a slight improvement on the labor market front, though considerably weaker than earlier in the year - mirroring broader employment data. We summarize the district-by-district descriptions of local employment conditions in the table below.
- Just 2 regional Fed banks (Philadelphia, Cleveland) of 12 reported increases in employment, albeit that was better than August/September's report which saw only 1. Three saw decreases, with 2 "slightly" (Minneapolis, KC) and one outright "declined" (Dallas). 7 regions saw no change in employment.
- The Beige Book's national-level description of labor market conditions: "Employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labor was generally muted across Districts and sectors. In most Districts, more employers reported lowering head counts through layoffs and attrition, with contacts citing weaker demand, elevated economic uncertainty, and, in some cases, increased investment in artificial intelligence technologies. Employers that reported hiring generally noted improved labor availability, and some favored hiring temporary and part-time workers over offering full-time employment opportunities. Nevertheless, labor supply in the hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors was reportedly strained in several Districts due to recent changes to immigration policies. Wages grew across all reporting Districts, generally at a modest to moderate pace, and labor cost pressures intensified in recent weeks due to outsized increases in employer-sponsored health insurance expenses."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8687/8713 High Sep 5 / 2
- PRICE: 0.8651 @ 19:45 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 0.8637/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. This highlights a dominant uptrend.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Extension
- RES 4: 1.3753 High Jul 2
- RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug 1 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3620 High Sep 15
- PRICE: 1.3605 @ 19:30 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 1.3475/3333 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and price traded higher Monday. The pair has pierced resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of it would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3636, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 1.3475, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the EMA would highlight a potential reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-07 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 113-15 @ 19:11 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 112-23+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-02 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures rallied to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, strengthening current bullish conditions. Note that the recent impulsive rally highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-23+, the 20-day EMA.
