COMMODITIES: Bearish WTI Conditions Intact Despite Moderate Recovery This Week
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $70.10, the 50-day EMA. Gold is trading higher this week. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a move lower would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2834.0. The 50-day average marks a key support.
- WTI Crude up $0.13 or +0.19% at $67.79
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.54% at $4.062
- Gold spot up $8.25 or +0.28% at $2942.54
- Copper down $3.15 or -0.65% at $481.8
- Silver down $0.19 or -0.57% at $33.055
- Platinum down $12.26 or -1.24% at $975.54
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BOE: Mann initial highlights
- "It is not just the immediate policy decision that needs to be communicated. Providing insights on the future path matters for the activist policy maker. Notwithstanding the 50 basis point cut now, structural impediments to achieving the target on a sustained basis are not yet fully purged. The activist policymaker needs to maintain policy rate discipline and restrictiveness even after this immediate decision. This ensures that, as we move through the inflation hump, expectations remain anchored both in the near and longer term."
- "I expect that Bank Rate will average well above the nominal equilibrium rate implied by the estimates set out in the August 2018 Inflation Report. I note that respondents in our Market Participants’ Survey have been consistent in putting this longer-run average at about 3-3½ percent."
- "I chose 50 basis points now, along with continued restrictiveness in the future, and a higher long-term Bank Rate to 1) ‘cut through the noise’, 2) anchor expectations through the inflation hump, and 3) acknowledge structural impediments and macroeconomic volatility in longer term."
USDCAD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4329 @ 08:30 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is trading closer to last week’s lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
JPY: A quick 30 pips drop in USDJPY
- Not seen a clear new trigger for this sudden 30 pips move in the Yen, clearly a Yen targeted move with similar bid going through versus the Pound, AUD, and the EUR.
- Looking at the CME, JPY saw its best traded buying volume for day on that spike, albeit still below averages volumes.
- The lower liquidity may have helped exacerbate some of the moves.
- Nonetheless, USDJPY still trades in a fairly limited range and off its printed low.
