EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.64/93 High Dec 11 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.00 @ Close Dec 12
• SUP 1: 90.62/90.53 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 25 & 26       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.53, the Nov 25 / 26 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A breach of 90.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb to resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.

• RES 4: 184.53 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.43 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 183.16 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 181.99 @ 06:52 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 181.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.95 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.40 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the trend. Sights are on 184.53, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 181.07, the 20-day EMA.

See the full document here for a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, a recap of this week and a summary of 2026 funding plans released so far.

• The only scheduled operation in the upcoming week is a Belgian ORI operation for which we pencil in issuance of E0.5bln.
• Issuance plans for 2026 from Germany (Thursday), Italy (likely Friday) and potentially Greece and Portugal are likely as well as the H1-26 plan from the EU. We also expect confirmation from Finland (Friday) and France for their 2026 funding plans.
• NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see redemptions of E4.1bln, with the vast majority (E4.0bln) from a formerly long 3-year EFSF bond. Coupon payments for the week total E1.9bln of which E1.3bln are Italian, E0.3bln from the EU and E0.3bln from the EFSF. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E5.5bln.
• We summarise 2026 funding plans from Austria, Belgium, the ESM/EFSF, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.