GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• PRICE: 1.2677 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.2642/2597 50-day EMA / Low Jan 17 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD remains in consolidation mode. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high, and key support lies at 1.2597, the Jan 17 low. Both price points represent important directional triggers. Clearance of 1.2827 would resume the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a breach of 1.2597 would highlight a short-term reversal and signal scope for weakness towards the 1.2500 handle, the Dec 13 low.

• RES 4: 119.640 High Jan 4
• RES 3: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.590 High Jan 12 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 118.360 High Jan 16
• PRICE: 118.080 @ 05:21 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 117.280 Low Jan 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.060 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.830 Low Nov 29

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, recent gains signal potential for a continued correction higher near-term. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA, at 117.978, and this has exposed resistance at 118.590, the Jan 12 high and a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 117.280, the Jan 25 low.

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0932/98 High Jan 24 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.0818 @ 05:32 GMT Jan 31
• SUP 1: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD maintains a bearish theme and a downtrend remains intact for now. 1.0822, the Jan 23 low, has been breached and this confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Sights are on 1.0793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of 1.0932, the Jan 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery and expose key short-term resistance at 1.0998, the Jan 5 high and a reversal trigger.