USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Extension
- RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
- RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
- RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 149.77 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 148.33 @ 06:38 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 147.63 Low Feb 7
- SUP 2: 146.83 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
- SUP 4: 145.57 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle
USDJPY is trading sharply lower this morning as it extends the short-term reversal from 150.89, the Feb 13 high. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and is testing support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.54. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bearish corrective cycle and open 147.63, the Feb 7 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 149.77, the 20-day EMA.
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BTP TECHS: (H4) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
- RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
- RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
- RES 1: 119.27/77 High Jan 30 / 4
- PRICE: 117.41 @ Close Feb 5
- SUP 1: 116.98 Low Jan 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
- SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28
BTP futures remain below last week’s high of 119.27 on Jan 30. The contract has recently traded above the 20-day EMA and pierced the Jan 12 high of 119.23. A clear break above 119.23 would highlight a base and a potential resumption of the primary uptrend. For now, attention is on key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent bearish cycle and open 115.70, the Dec 8 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
- RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
- RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
- RES 1: 148.89 High Feb 05
- PRICE: 148.42 @ 06:32 GMT Feb 6
- SUP 1: 146.99/145.90 20-day EMA / Low Feb 1 and key support
- SUP 2: 145.59 Low Jan 16
- SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12
- SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9
The USDJPY trend outlook is bullish and Friday’s strong rally reinforces this condition. Key resistance at 148.80, the Jan 19 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late December and open 149.16, a Fibonacci retracement point. The break higher would also signal scope for gains towards 149.75, the Nov 22 high. Key short-term support lies at 145.90, the Feb 1 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 06-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06-Feb | 1200 | Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report | |
| 07-Feb | 0840 | BoE's Breeden Speaks At Women In Economics Event | |
| 07-Feb | 1215 | BOE's Woods et al:Treasury Select Committee | |
| 08-Feb | 1500 | BoE's Mann Speaks At OMFIF | |
| 12-Feb | 1800 | BOE's Bailey lecture at Loughborough University | |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Jan/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 14-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Consumer inflation report/ Producer Prices |
| 15-Feb | 0700 | Dec | GDP/ Trade/ GDP First Estimate/Services/Production |
| 15-Feb | 0700 | Dec | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 15-Feb | 1300 | BOE's Greene fireside chat with Fitch Ratings | |
| 15-Feb | 1350 | BOE's Mann panellist at 40th NABE Conference | |
| 16-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Retail Sales |
| 16-Feb | 1940 | BOE's Pill panellist at 40th NABE Conference | |
| 21-Feb | 0001 | Jan | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 21-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Feb | 1100 | Feb | CBI Industrial Trends |
