USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

Jan-12 07:28
  • RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
  • RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
  • RES 1: 1.3521 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.3441 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 12
  • SUP 1: 1.3357 Low Jan 9
  • SUP 2: 1.3317 Low Nov 24 / 25
  • SUP 3: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

The short-term outlook in USDCAD is bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below a key support at the 1.3385 level - the Dec 5 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3317, the Nov 24 / 25 low. The bear trigger lies at 1.3226, Nov 15 low. On the upside, key resistance is far-off at 1.3705, the Dec 16 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3521, the 50-day EMA.

Historical bullets

BUNDS: ALL EYES on US CPI

Dec-13 07:18
  • German final CPI came inline with expectation on the Cash open, so limited impact into the Bund contract, with ALL EYES on the US CPI today.
  • A tight overnight session, but it remains near the December low.
  • Support comes at 139.85, while resistance moves down to 140.70.
  • Today sees, Italian IP, German ZEW, and the awaited US CPI, and real earnings.
  • BOE releases financial stability report.
  • SUPPLY: Italy 2024 (equates to 11k short BTP), 2026, 2029 (equates to combined 28.3k BTP) should weigh into the bidding deadline.
  • US also sells $18bn of 30yr reopening.

MNI: UK NOV CLAIMANT CHG +30400

Dec-13 07:01



  • MNI: UK NOV CLAIMANT CHG +30400
  • UK NOV CLAIMANT RATE +3.9%
  • UK OCT ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +3.7%
  • UK OCT AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS +6.1% YY
  • UK OCT AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS EX-BONUS +6.1% YY

MNI: NORWAY OCT MAINLAND GDP +0% M/M, AGG GDP -1% M/M

Dec-13 07:00



  • MNI: NORWAY OCT MAINLAND GDP +0% M/M, AGG GDP -1% M/M