GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
Oct-15 17:30
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17
- RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 1.3422/3527 20-day EMA / High Oct 1 and a pivot level
- PRICE: 1.3356 @ 15:43 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 1.3249 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact. Recent weakness has resulted in the break of a key short-term support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 1.3280, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3422, the 20-day EMA.
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Sep-15 17:05
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US STOCKS: A Minor Dip Off All-Time Highs, Alphabet The Fourth $3tn Company
Sep-15 17:01
- ESZ5 has softened a little in recent trading but at 6672.00 (+0.4%) still trades close to its earlier fresh all-time high of 6681.25, with gains at the time extended by Trump suggesting a move to semi-annual reporting for corporates.
- Next resistance is seen at 6685.25 (1.00 proj of Aug 1-15-20 price swing) after which lies the round 6700. Support meanwhile isn’t seen until 6546 (20-day EMA).
- Some large idiosyncratic moves at play include Tesla (+5.6%) after Musk bought ~$1bn of shares, Alphabet (+3.3%) having become the fourth extending company with a market cap in excess of $3trn after building on previous gains from a recent antitrust ruling and Oracle (+3.3%) attributed to data center construction expectations along with Seagate Technology up 7.8%. Other notable gains include Amazon (+1.6%) and Apple (+1.0%).
- Nvidia meanwhile is back to flat, gaining intraday with a lack of fresh headlines at the China trade delegation press conference after Bessent-He talks. It had dragged pre-market and earlier in the session after China said it violated antitrust regulations with its acquisition of Mellanox.
- Leaders: Communication services (+2.0%), consumer discretionary (+1.4%) and IT (+0.5%).
- Laggards: Health care (-1.0%), consumer staples (-0.8%) and materials (-0.6%).
- The tech-heavy nature of day’s gains unsurprisingly sees NDQ outperform at +0.65% (20 pts off earlier all-time highs of 24274.80). The Russell 2000 also performs well (+0.4%) whilst the Dow Jones lags (+0.05%).
COMMODITIES: Gold Hits Fresh All-Time High, WTI Crude Climbs
Sep-15 16:42
- Gold has rallied to a fresh all-time high on Monday amid broad dollar weakness ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, when a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. Bullion may also be benefitting from continued Fed independence concerns after President Trump called again for rates to be cut.
- Spot gold has risen by a further 1.0% to $3,681/oz, taking total gains this month to almost 6%.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with the break higher confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Above here, attention turns to round number resistance at the $3,700 handle, followed by $3,716.5, a Fibonacci projection.
- Similarly, silver has also rallied by 0.9% to $42.6/oz.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with today’s move piercing resistance at $42.606, a Fibonacci projection. Above here, next resistance is seen at $42.974, the 2.382 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing, followed by $43.000 round number resistance.
- Meanwhile, WTI crude is also trading higher, with the market weighing the impacts of further Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
- WTI Oct 25 is up by 0.9% at $63.3/bbl.
- Despite the move, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective.
- Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Initial support is at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger.
