GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present Despite Recent Gains
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - Intraday high / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2652.2 @ 07:26 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: $2634.7/2583.6 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Despite the latest recovery, a bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a continuation higher would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25
- PRICE: $2644.6 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
Gold is unchanged and is trading inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
BUNDS: Supply, US Data and France politics are at the forefront Today
- Bund sees the December Month still as the most active, but expect for this to start changing into March later today, with the vast majorityl of the Eurex spreads likely fully completed by the end of day.
- Yesterday's support in RXZ4 was seen at 134.94 initially, held Yesterday, and tested overnight, only managed a 134.91 low going into the European Cash session.
- A clear through that area opens back to 134.33.
- The upside is unchanged, while it printed a 135.46 high Yesterday, main target is at 135.72 (2.00% in Yield).
- Today's Services PMIs will be final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US, There'll be more focus on the US ADP and especially the US ISM services this afternoon.
- Plenty of Focus on France later this afternoon also, with Barnier set to be ousted.
- SUPPLY: UK £4bn 2031 (equates to 25.2k Gilt) could weigh, German €3.5bn 10yr Bund (equates to 29.9k Bund) could weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Cipollone, Makhlouf, Nagel, BoE Bailey, Fed Powell, Musalem, Barkin, Daly.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Northbound
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 123.11 1.500 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 123.43 High Dec 3
- PRICE: 122.47 @ Close Dec 4
- SUP 1: 121.75 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 120.71 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.05 Low Nov 25
- SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18
BTP futures traded higher yesterday, once again marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Nov 7. The latest rally has resulted in a move through key resistance at 121.97, the Oct 1 high. A clear break of this level highlights an important bullish development and opens 123.11 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is 120.71, the 20-day EMA.
