GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3542 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3412 @ 16:20 BST Jul 17
- SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
A short-term bear cycle in GBPUSD remains in place and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A move down has resulted in a breach of both 20- and 50-day EMAs. Tuesday’s sell-off resulted in a break of trendline support at 1.3450. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low and the breach strengthens a bearish threat, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3542, the 20-day EMA.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13
- PRICE: 1.3527 @ 15:18 BST Jun 17
- SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
- SUP 2: 1.3346 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3207 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
GBPUSD traded softer into the Tuesday close, however key support remains intact for now. As such, bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $3.5B Hyundai 5Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/17 $5B *EIB 7Y SOFR+50
06/17 $3.5B #Hyundai Capital AM: $1B 2Y +93, $400M 2Y SOFR+112, $1B 3Y +103, $600M 5Y +112, $500M 7Y +127 - 06/17 $3B #UnitedHealth $500M 3Y +52, $750M +5Y +70, $1B 10Y +92, $750M 30Y +112
- 06/17 $3B *KFW 2Y SOFR+26
- 06/17 $2B #Enterprise Products $500M 3Y +45, $750M +5Y +65, $750M +10Y +85
- 06/17 $675M Islamic Development Bank Sukuk 5Y SOFR+58a
STIR: US Twist Flattening Extends On Geopol Tensions
- US rates have seen their twist flattening accelerate (SFRZ5/Z6 -4.5 ticks) as oil futures continue to push higher (WTI +3%) on geopolitical tensions.
- Fed Funds implied rates are 1.5bp higher for the Dec’25 meeting for session highs and within 3.5bp of pre-CPI levels that had been their most hawkish since February.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp for tomorrow, 3bp Jul, 17.5bp Sep, 29.5bp Oct and 45.5bp Dec.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.29% (SFRZ6, -3bp) last closed lower on Jun 12 and Jun 4.
- Trump is set to decide today on joining the Iran conflict having earlier called for unconditional surrender and Iran calling on Israelis to evacuate Haifa and Tel Aviv.
- Axios' Ravid has noted that: “The U.S. officials said Trump is seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.”
