GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13
• PRICE: 1.3527 @ 15:18 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.3456 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 1.3346 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3207 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

GBPUSD traded softer into the Tuesday close, however key support remains intact for now. As such, bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, together with a bull set-up in moving average studies, highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at 1.3616, the Jun 5 high has been pierced - a bullish development. Support to watch lies at 1.3456, the Jun 10 low.       

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 06/17 $5B *EIB 7Y SOFR+50
  06/17 $3.5B #Hyundai Capital AM: $1B 2Y +93, $400M 2Y SOFR+112, $1B 3Y +103, $600M 5Y +112, $500M 7Y +127
• 06/17 $3B #UnitedHealth $500M 3Y +52, $750M +5Y +70, $1B 10Y +92, $750M 30Y +112
• 06/17 $3B *KFW 2Y SOFR+26
• 06/17 $2B #Enterprise Products $500M 3Y +45, $750M +5Y +65, $750M +10Y +85
• 06/17 $675M Islamic Development Bank Sukuk 5Y SOFR+58a

• US rates have seen their twist flattening accelerate (SFRZ5/Z6 -4.5 ticks) as oil futures continue to push higher (WTI +3%) on geopolitical tensions.
• Fed Funds implied rates are 1.5bp higher for the Dec’25 meeting for session highs and within 3.5bp of pre-CPI levels that had been their most hawkish since February.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0bp for tomorrow, 3bp Jul, 17.5bp Sep, 29.5bp Oct and 45.5bp Dec.
• The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.29% (SFRZ6, -3bp) last closed lower on Jun 12 and Jun 4.
• Trump is set to decide today on joining the Iran conflict having earlier called for unconditional surrender and Iran calling on Israelis to evacuate Haifa and Tel Aviv.
• Axios' Ravid has noted that: “The U.S. officials said Trump is seriously considering joining the war and launching a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, especially its underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow.”