GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.3403 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3249/3340 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3130 @ 16:20 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 1.3097 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and today’s continuation of this week’s slide strengthens current conditions. The pair has breached 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. Note too that key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low, has also been breached. Sights are on 1.3041 next, the Apr 14 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.3340, the 20-day EMA.
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COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Losses, Silver At 14-Year High Amid US Shutdown
- Crude prices are drifting lower after falling sharply this week amid oversupply concerns ahead of OPEC’s Sunday meeting, with conflicting reports on the size of a potential November hike. The US government shutdown is also bearish for prices.
- WTI Nov 25 is down by 0.8% at $61.9/bbl.
- The move leaves WTI 7% below Friday’s highs, with this reversal lower refocussing attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend, opening $57.50, May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold printed another new record high at $3,895/oz earlier in the session, before unwinding most of the day’s gains to leave the yellow metal broadly unchanged around $3,864 at typing.
- Further gains in gold this week reflect rising haven demand amid concerns surrounding the US government shutdown which started today.
- The trend condition in gold is unchanged, and a bull cycle remains in play. Sights are on $3,909.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3,699.4, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- Similarly, silver has rallied by 1.7% to $47.5/oz, taking the precious metal to its highest level since April 2011.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with sights on $47.857 next, a 2.618 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing, which was tested earlier today. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle.
US DATA: Shutdown Calendar Update: No NFPs/Claims, But Some Jobs Data Upcoming
We've updated our shutdown data calendar to make clearer that weekly jobless claims will not be released so long as the shutdown goes on (despite some speculation we had heard to the contrary, the BLS messaging last night and today has been clear enough). Shutdown Guide-Oct120252.pdf
- We are also confident that nonfarm payrolls will not be released Friday as today's Senate votes failed and any shutdown resolution will come only after the release time (there will not be any Congressional votes Thursday).
- That still gives us a little labor market data Thursday morning though it is not listed on our calendar: Challenger job cuts at 0730ET and the Chicago Fed's new Labor Market Indicators release at 0830 (which will provide a "final" forecast for the September unemployment rate, link here)
- Additionally, we heard on Bloomberg TV earlier today that BBG has plans to compile its own weekly jobless claims data via obtaining the state-by-state numbers, though we don't have confirmation or details.
US TSY OPTIONS: Dec'25 2Y Broken Put Fly
- 6,500 TUZ5 103.87/104.37/104.50/104.87 broken put flys ref 104-09.62
