US TSYS: Bear Flatter With The Government Open Again, Data Schedules Watched For
Nov-13 11:56
- Treasuries have pushed lower with US desks filtering in, extending overnight losses and with bear flattening in play possibly related to positioning unwinds following the re-opening of the government.
- Today see 30Y supply and we suspect only state-level claims data in the afternoon but we can't completely rule out a national print at 0830ET.
- There will be additional focus on whether we receive any updates around data release schedules, although we note that the BLS only published its revised schedule at 1630ET on the first day of re-opening in 2013 after what was a much shorter shutdown.
- Cash yields are 1-2.5bp higher, with declines led by 3s.
- 5s30s at 98bps is only back to Nov 6 levels.
- TYZ5 trades at 112-27 (-05) on reasonable cumulative volumes of 330k.
- Yesterday saw 113-02+ in a probe of a key near-term resistance at 113-02 (Nov 5 & 7 joint highs), after which lies 113-18+ (Oct 28 high).
- Data: Outside chance of national-level jobless claims released at 0830ET but not our baseline (although state-level details released at ~1700ET), Chicago Fed CARTS retail sales estimate (0830ET), Dallas Fed weekly economic index (1130ET)
- Fedspeak: Daly on balance sheet management (0800ET), Kashkari opening remarks (1030ET), Musalem in fireside chat on mon pol (1215ET, hawk), Hammack in fireside chat (1220ET, hawk)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $25bn 30Y - 912810UP1 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $110bn 4-Week Bills, $95bn 8-Week Bills (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump participates in executive order signing (1400ET)
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FINLAND: Government agrees to debt brake from 2026
Oct-14 11:53
- Bloomberg is reporting that Finnish party leaders have agreed to introduce the debt break from 2026.
- This has been debated for some time (see this story on the government website in June).
- Yle (Finnish national public service broadcasting company) reported a sources story on this 2 hours ago noting that "the proposed model would be to reduce it in the short-to-medium term to 60 percent, from the current level of just over 88 percent, and eventually to about 40 percent."
- The story notes that "parties will jointly decide at the beginning of each parliamentary term on the goals for reducing debt over the next four and eight years."
- The sources story also stated that "sources from the opposition Left Alliance told Yle that the party would not support the agreement — citing the "overly ambitious" debt-to-GDP ratio targets as one of the main reasons."
- At this point it is unclear exactly what the targets that have been agreed by the government are - and whether they match those cited in the Yte story.
GILT SYNDICATION: 5.25% Jan-41 gilt: Priced (with details)
Oct-14 11:51
- Reoffer:101.621 to yield 5.0969%
- Spread set earlier at 4.375% Jan-40 Gilt + 8.0bps (Guidance was +8/8.5bps)
- Size: GBP9bln (above the GBP4.0-8.5bln MNI expected - although we had noted the top half of that range was likely).
- Orderbooks closed in excess of GBP128bln (including JLM interest of GBP7bln)
- Hedge ratio: 110% vs 4.375% Jan-40 gilt. Spot ref 93.50 / 5.0169%, hedge at 93.501
- Maturity: 31 Jan 2041
- Settlement: 15 Oct 2025 (T+1)
- Coupon: 5.25% (short first)
- ISIN: GB00BVP99897
- JLMs: BofA / Barclays / DB / MS (B&D/DM) / RBC CM
- Timing: TOE 12:45BST. FTT immediately
Source: Market source and MNI colour
GILT SYNDICATION: 5.25% Jan-41 gilt: Priced
Oct-14 11:48
- Reoffer:101.621 to yield 5.0969%
- Spread set earlier at 4.375% Jan-40 Gilt + 8.0bps (Guidance was +8/8.5bps)
- Size: GBP9bln (above the GBP4.0-8.5bln MNI expected - although we had noted the top half of that range was likely).
- Orderbooks closed in excess of GBP128bln (including JLM interest of GBP7bln)
- Hedge ratio: 110% vs 4.375% Jan-40 gilt
- Maturity: 31 Jan 2041
- Settlement: 15 Oct 2025 (T+1)
- Coupon: 5.25% (short first)
- ISIN: GB00BVP99897
- JLMs: BofA / Barclays / DB / MS (B&D/DM) / RBC CM
- Timing: Hedge deadline 12:00BST
Source: Market source and MNI colour
