EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8503 @ 16:34 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 0.8469/62 50-day EMA / Low May 6
- SUP 2: 0.8432 Low Apr 4
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP traded lower again Tuesday, briefly piercing support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.8469. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8415, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible the move down since Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. First key resistance is 0.8624, the Apr 21 high.
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EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8628 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8604 1.382 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8593 High Aug 14 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8580 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 0.8571 @ 16:49 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 0.8432/0.8380 Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 0.8251 Low Mar 4
EURGBP maintains a bullish tone. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle highlights an important technical breach and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8380, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8628 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8604 1.382 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8593 High Aug 14 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8580 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 0.8571 @ 16:49 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 0.8432/0.8380 Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 0.8251 Low Mar 4
EURGBP maintains a bullish tone. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle highlights an important technical breach and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8380, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
BONDS: Gilts Creeping Back Toward Shorts; OATs, BTPs Little Changed (2/2)
For non-German contracts, structural positioning remains flat/short:
- OAT: OAT remains in short structural positioning, having entered that territory after being "flat" for most of February. Last week's trade was indicative of long setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains flat, where it has been the last 7 months, but is now as close to "short" as it's been since early January. Last week some some shorts set.
- BTP: BTP has now been flat since late January, though has ticked a little bit closer to "long" territory in the last week or so following some long-setting.
