EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8467 @ 17:00 BST May 8
- SUP 1: 0.8461/62 Low May 8/6
- SUP 2: 0.8432 Low Apr 4
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP has briefly pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.8470. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8415, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible the move down since Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. First key resistance to watch is 0.8624, the Apr 21 high.
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EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Its Gains
- RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.8625 High Aug 8 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8604 1.382 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8593 High Aug 14 ‘24
- PRICE: 0.8553 @ 16:29 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: 0.8470/0.8397 Low Apr 7 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 0.8251 Low Mar 4
EURGBP maintains a bullish tone and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. A key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high, has been cleared. The breach of this hurdle highlights an important technical break and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8397, the 20-day EMA. The cross is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
US SWAPS: Swap Curve Bull Steepening, Spreads Extend Inversion
Swap spreads have gapped to inverted session lows amid heavy swap-tied buying in short end over the last 30 minutes, 2Y through 5Y spds contract 4.5-5.0bp, 10Y swap -4.0 to -56.81 at the moment.
TARIFFS: Brief Spike In Equities On Unclear White House Comms
- Stocks popped higher on "*LEAVITT: 10% UNIVERSAL BASELINE TARIFF WILL GO INTO EFFECT" - bbg
Presumably on the assumption that the higher individual tariff rates for those with trade surpluses with the rest wouldn't go ahead tomorrow. - But she'd earlier said "*LEAVITT: 'RECIPROCAL TARIFFS' WILL CONTINUE TO GO INTO EFFECT" - bbg
- The former sounds like a misunderstanding with the 10% tariffs already in place as we first posted, but communication is certainly unclear. The 10% minimum rate had already come into effect on Saturday at 0001ET.
