EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

Of note:

EURUSD ~1bn at 1.0800.

EURUSD 2.3bn at 1.0800 (thu).

USDJPY 1.19bn at 150.00 (thu).

EURUSD 1.53bn at 1.0800 (fri).

USDCAD 1.19bn at 1.4350 (fri).

AUDUSD ~1bn at 0.6300 (fri).

AUDUSD 1.43bn at 0.6350 (tue).

• EURUSD: 1.0700 (1.11bn), 1.0750 (525mln), 1.0790 (362mln), 1.0800 (972mln).
• USDJPY: 149.80 (278mln), 149.95 (299mln).
• USDCAD: 1.4300 (307mln), 1.4350 (425mln).
• NZDUSD: 0.5775 (427mln).

• EUR/USD: $1.0790-00(E1.9bln)
• USD/JPY: Y149.80-95($577mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3780($1.1bln), C$1.4400-15($924mln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.3bln)

Tariff worry ahead of the impending “Liberation Day” announcements from the White House limit any hawkish pullbacks in EUR STIRs and EGBs.

• Euribor futures flat to +2.0 as a result.
• ’25 ECB meeting-dated OIS little changed to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~19.5bp of cuts for this month, 36.5bp through June and 62.5bp through year-end.
• A reminder that the market expects the ECB to be more reactive to any downside growth shocks emanating from U.S. tariffs than upside inflation outcomes. Recent ECB communique has done little to push back against that assumption.
• Appearances from ECB’s Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva are scheduled today. Note that Lane will moderate a panel the Bank’s AI conference, so don’t expect too much in the way of direct monetary policy comments from him.
• Little of note on the Eurozone data calendar, which will leave focus on U.S. tariff decisions and data for much of the session.