EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8518 @ 09:03 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 0.8480 Low May 1
- SUP 2: 0.8477/62 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
A mid-session rally in EUR/GBP was sold into the Wednesday close, keeping the sell-on-rallies theme intact and highlighting a continuation of the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8462. It is still possible that the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A reversal and a resumption of gains would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.0800.
EURUSD 2.3bn at 1.0800 (thu).
USDJPY 1.19bn at 150.00 (thu).
EURUSD 1.53bn at 1.0800 (fri).
USDCAD 1.19bn at 1.4350 (fri).
AUDUSD ~1bn at 0.6300 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.43bn at 0.6350 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.0700 (1.11bn), 1.0750 (525mln), 1.0790 (362mln), 1.0800 (972mln).
- USDJPY: 149.80 (278mln), 149.95 (299mln).
- USDCAD: 1.4300 (307mln), 1.4350 (425mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5775 (427mln).
OPTIONS: Expiries for Apr02 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0790-00(E1.9bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.80-95($577mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3780($1.1bln), C$1.4400-15($924mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.3bln)
STIR: Over 60bp Of ECB Cuts Priced Through Dec Ahead Of Tariff Announcements
Tariff worry ahead of the impending “Liberation Day” announcements from the White House limit any hawkish pullbacks in EUR STIRs and EGBs.
- Euribor futures flat to +2.0 as a result.
- ’25 ECB meeting-dated OIS little changed to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~19.5bp of cuts for this month, 36.5bp through June and 62.5bp through year-end.
- A reminder that the market expects the ECB to be more reactive to any downside growth shocks emanating from U.S. tariffs than upside inflation outcomes. Recent ECB communique has done little to push back against that assumption.
- Appearances from ECB’s Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva are scheduled today. Note that Lane will moderate a panel the Bank’s AI conference, so don’t expect too much in the way of direct monetary policy comments from him.
- Little of note on the Eurozone data calendar, which will leave focus on U.S. tariff decisions and data for much of the session.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Apr-25 | 2.226 | -19.4 |
Jun-25 | 2.056 | -36.4 |
Jul-25 | 1.982 | -43.8 |
Sep-25 | 1.875 | -54.5 |
Oct-25 | 1.840 | -58.0 |
Dec-25 | 1.794 | -62.6 |
