EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8500 @ 16:28 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 0.8482 Low April 30
- SUP 2: 0.8477/60 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP was sold off a mid-session rally, keeping the technical picture intact and highlighting a continuation of the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8460. It is still possible that the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A reversal and a resumption of gains would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.
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EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 0.8357 @ 14:36 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 0.8316 Low Mar 28
- SUP 2: 0.8291 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8251 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
The move down in EURGBP that started Mar 11 still appears corrective and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 0.8316, the Mar 28 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement that would open 0.8290, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of 0.8395, the Mar 24 high, would be a bullish development.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Issuers Sidelined Ahead April 2 Tariff Deadline
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/31 $Benchmark Japan Tobacco +3Y, +5Y, +10Y investor calls
- 03/31 $Benchmark Gold Fields 10Y investor calls
- 03/31 $Benchmark Caf perpNC5.5 investor calls
- Expected Tuesday:
- 04/01 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken Norway 4Y SOFR+41a
- 04/01 $Benchmark NRW Bank 5Y SOFR+49a
- 03/31 $Benchmark DBJ 5Y SOFR+62a
POLITICAL RISK: Trump To Announce Apr 2 Tariffs At Rose Garden Event
- White House Press Secretary Leavitt says President Trump will announce his reciprocal tariff plan on Wednesday at a Rose Garden event on April 2 – time currently unknown.
- Members of the cabinet will attend the announcement.
- She says the announcement will feature “country-based” tariffs but with Trump also “committed” to implementing sectoral duties which Bloomberg reports her as saying at another time.
- Trump will talk on tariff specifics at the announcement.
- About thirty minutes earlier, Trump took to Truth Social to talk about the benefits of his tariff policy, citing private investment pledged for the US. It implicitly suggested no sign of backing down ahead of “Liberation Day” on April 2 although of course with details waiting to be heard and likely to set the tone of market reaction to any announcement.
- Full Truth Social posts here: "There will never have been a transformation of a Country like the transformation that is happening, for all to see, in the United States of America. Companies are pouring into our Country at levels never seen before, with Jobs (and Money!) to follow. It is a beautiful thing to watch!
- In two months, there has been more Private Investment spoken for, and/or committed to, than in four years of the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration — A fact that the Fake News hates talking about!"
