EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8496 @ 06:37 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 0.8482 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8477/60 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP is trading lower this week, highlighting a continuation of the current bear cycle. Sights are on 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen the bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 0.8460. It is still possible that the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A reversal and a resumption of gains would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.3015 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2960 @ 06:30 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 1.2884/71 20-day EMA / Low Mar 27
- SUP 2: 1.2753 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
The trend in GBPUSD is bullish and the pair continues to trade above last week’s lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2884, is intact. A continuation higher and a breach of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high and bull trigger, would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. A clear breach of the 20-day EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper correction.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 119.040 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 118.950 High Mar 4
- RES 2: 118.382 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- RES 1: 118.100 Intraday high
- PRICE: 118.070 @ 06:10 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 117.441 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a ey short-term support
- SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17
- SUP 4: 116.470 Low Mar 12
Bobl futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Mar 6. The contract has breached 117.974, 61.8% retracement of the bear leg between Feb 28 - Mar 6. The breach strengthens the bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards 118.382, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.441., the 20-day EMA. Key short-term support is at 117.080, the Mar 25 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 31-Mar | 0930 | Feb | BoE Lending Data |
| 31-Mar | - | FQ1 | DMO Quarterly Investors/GEMM consultation |
| 01-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01-Apr | 0915 | - | BoE's Greene on ‘UK MP/macro conjuncture’ |
| 01-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Services / Composite PMI |
| 04-Apr | 0730 | FQ1 | DMO announce Apr-Jun issuance operations |
| 04-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Construction PMI |
| 08-Apr | 1700 | - | BoE's Lombardelli on 'What can the UK learn from the US' |
| 10-Apr | 0001 | Mar | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Apr | 1400 | - | BoE's Breeden at MNI Connect Event |
| 11-Apr | 0001 | - | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Apr | 0700 | Feb | Monthly Activity Data |
| 11-Apr | - | - | BoE's Saporta on 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ |
| 12-Apr | - | - | BoE's Greene on 'how to coordinate economic policy' |
| 15-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
