PERU: BCRP Purchases Further $78mn In Spot Market

From our latest Europe Pi update:

• German contracts' structural positioning is entirely flat, having been short/mixed in our last update 3 weeks ago.
• Bobl and Buxl remained flat since that update, but they are joined by Bund which had previously been "short", and Schatz previously "very short".
• The latest week's trade was very much mixed, with shorts set in Schatz and Bund, and longs reduced in Bobl and Buxl.

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3388/3471 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 1.3270 @ 15:53 GMT Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.3249/48 Low Oct 14 and the bear trigger / Low Oct 28
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

The bear threat in GBPUSD built on Tuesday. Recent weakness highlights the end of the corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. A resumption of the downleg would expose key short-term support at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger - a level tested, but not yet broken. Clearance of this level would resume the downleg that has been in place since Sep 17. Key near-term resistance is at 1.3471, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would instead signal a possible reversal.               

There is still no sign that the US government shutdown is weighing on US President Donald Trump’s approval rating. But that may change in the coming days as the shutdown extends beyond November 1, when SNAP benefits dry up and ACA (Obamacare) open enrollment begins.  

• Silver Bulletin notes, “We’re nearly one month in and it’s still not clear when the [government shutdown] standoff will end. It’s also unclear what “winning” this shutdown would even look like. But what I can say is that the shutdown is still not affecting Donald Trump’s approval rating. As of today, 43.8 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing and 53.1 percent disapprove, for a net approval rating of -9.2.”
• Eli McKown Dawson at Silver Bulletin notes, “Yes, Trump’s job approval is down from where it was last week (net -7.6), but that was the tail end of what now looks like a momentary uptick. One month ago, Trump had a net approval rating of -9.4. That’s pretty much identical to where he is today. In fact, Trump’s approval rating has been so stable that even though it fell much more quickly than Joe Biden’s early in their respective terms, the two aren’t very far off today.”

Figure 1: President Donald Trump Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin