PERU: BCRP Interest Rate Decision Due At 0000BST/1900ET
- As a reminder, the BCRP is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% this evening, although latest softer-than-expected CPI inflation data still keep the door open to a further possible cut in the coming meetings.
- After delivering a 25bp reduction last month, the central bank said that the policy rate was now very close to neutral, and Governor Velarde has subsequently said that there is no need to be aggressive with rate cuts. With growth still around potential there is little urgency to move today, but some analysts still see scope for one final cut later in the quarter.
- Ahead of the meeting, the Peruvian sol has outperformed again today, with USDPEN falling a further 0.5% to a fresh cycle low at 3.4265, marking the lowest level for the pair since June 2020.
- The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Options Leaning Toward Calls, Rate Cuts Cool
Option desks reported mixed SOFR and Treasury flow Tuesday, leaning toward calls even as underlying futures look to finish lower/near lows. Projected rate cuts recede slightly from pre-open (*) levels: Sep'25 at -27.2bp (-27bp), Oct'25 at -45.9bp (-47.3bp), Dec'25 at -67.9bp (-69.2bp), Jan'26 at -79.9bp (-82.3bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -4,000 SFRH7 96.00/98.00 risk rev w/ SFRM7 96.12/98.12 risk rev, both call over 1 total
- 3,000 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors ref 96.36
- Block, 6,500 SFRZ5 96.62/96.75 call spds 1.75
- +2,500 SFRM6/SFRU6 97.50/98.25 call spd strip, 18.5
- 2,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.43/96.50 call flys ref 96.355
- 2,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37 call spds ref 96.38
- 2,850 SFRU5 96.00/96.06/96.18/96.25 call condors, ref 95.985
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12 call spds, 1.5
- +2,500 SFRZ5 95.81/95.93 put spds, 0.5 vs. 96.35/0.05%
- +5,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62/96.75/96.87 call condors, 1.5
- +10,000 SFRU5 95.93/96.00/96.06 call flys, 2.75
- 2,000 SFRU5 95.87/96.00/96.12 iron flys, 4.0 ref 95.99
- Block, +5,000 SFRU5 95.87/95.93/96.00 call flys, 2
- Block, +2,500 SFRU5 96.00/96.12 call spds, 1.25
- Block/screen, +4,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62/96.75/96.87 call condors, 1.5
- +6,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12 put spds, 1.75
- -2,000 0QU5 97.00/97.50 call spd vs. 2QU5 97.00/97.37 call spds, 2.0 net
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.00 calls, 1.75
- Treasury Options:
- 2,400 TUV5 104.75/105 1x2 call spds ref 104-14.25
- 2,400 FVZ5 110 calls ref 109-29.25
- 2,500 FVV5 109.75 puts, 17.5 ref 109-28.25
- 5,000 TUV5 104.25/104.5 call spds ref 104-14.88
- 5,000 TYV5 113.5/114 call spds ref 113-13
- +2,000 TYV5 111.75/112.75 put spds 13 vs. 113-08.5/0.08%
- +1,500 TYV 112/113 put spds, 15 vs. 113-16.5/0.23%
- +1,500 TUH6 104.62/105.25 call spds, 13.5 vs. 104-14.75/0.20%
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.65 @ 17:35 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 171.15 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.15.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.64 @ 17:35 BST Sep 9
- SUP 1: 171.15 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.15.
