CHILE: BCCh Minutes Due At 1330BST / 0830ET

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 03-Jun 1000 Factory Orders (3.4% rev, -3.0%), ex-Trans (-0.4% rev, 0.2%)
• 03-Jun 1000 Durable Goods Orders (-6.3%, -6.3%), ex-Trans (0.2%, 0.2%)
• 03-Jun 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-1.3%, -1.3%), ship (-0.1%, -0.1%)
• 03-Jun 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.192M, 7.100M)
• 03-Jun 1000 JOLTS Job Openings Rate (4.3%, --)
• 03-Jun 1000 JOLTS Quits Level (3.332M, 3.271M), rate (2.1%, --)
• 03-Jun 1000 JOLTS Layoffs Level (1.558M, 1.614M), rate (1.0%, --)
• 03-Jun 1130 US Tsy $60B 6W bill auction
• 03-Jun 1245 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated Q&A 
• 03-Jun 1300 Fed Gov Cook economic outlook (text, Q&A)
• 03-Jun 1530 Dallas Fed Logan, Fed listens event (text, no Q&A)

• USDCAD (+0.15%) is exhibiting a relatively tight range on Tuesday, despite the more constructive tone for the greenback. Although off recent cycle lows, USDCAD posted its lowest daily close since October on Monday, keeping the CAD’s recent resilience in focus as we approach this week’s BOC rate decision.
• We believe that better-than-expected GDP and a pickup in core inflation should tilt the balance toward a hold tomorrow. MNI’s full preview is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3HqClXT
• Price action backs up the prevailing bear trend for USDCAD evidenced by the 20-day EMA capping the pair’s gains well last week. Sights are on 1.3643 next, the Oct 9 low/Sep high and below here, attention will be on 1.3579, a Fibonacci projection.
• The break-even on an overnight straddle sits at +/- 50 pips, suggesting markets see little risk of a significant breakout over the BOC, and place greater attention on Friday’s US employment data.
• Scotiabank points to CPI expectations remaining elevated, tariff related risks and the fact the markets aren’t pressuring the BOC as bolstering the case for a hold. Goldman Sachs think CAD could benefit from a slightly more hawkish BOC and believe better growth will be a larger positive impulse for the currency in the medium-term.

• The BTP/Bund continues to find some support at the September 2021 low, situated circa ~97.7bps.
• For now the spread sits just a small 0.4bp wider but at 97.6bps.
• Further tightening bias would still target the Psychological 90.00bps level next, printed a 90.4bps low in 2021, its lowest since mid March 2015.
• It is Worth keeping an eye on how we progress from here.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).