CHILE: BCCh Minutes Due At 1130GMT
Feb-12 11:24
- The BCCh will publish the minutes to its Jan 28 MPC meeting at 1130GMT(0630ET), when it kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.0% in a unanimous decision. The accompanying statement continued to strike a cautious tone, with the Board noting the increase in inflation risks and removing the reference to future rate cuts. This was seen as signalling an extended pause in the easing cycle, with many analysts expecting rates to remain on hold through H1 and potentially room for some renewed easing later in the year.
- In the minutes, Goldman Sachs will be particularly attentive to the MPC’s assessment of the external backdrop. On the domestic economy, they look for any discussion on the state of the real business cycle. They will also be on the lookout for a discussion on the desired monetary stance, and the extent to which the MPC favours maintaining rates above neutral for longer amid the increase in inflation risks.
- USDCLP was unchanged yesterday at 961.23, keeping the pair close to recent three-month lows around 956. The recent move lower in USDCLP reinforces current bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 940.35, the 61.8% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Initial firm resistance is seen at 982.50, the 50-day EMA.
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed Inflation, Budget Balance, Tsy Bills
Jan-13 11:23
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 13-Jan 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (2.97%, --)
- 13-Jan 1130 $84B 13W & $72B 26W Bill auctions
- 13-Jan 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$366.8B, -$73.8B)
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: New 3-year / 3.375% Oct-54 tap: Mandate
Jan-13 11:06
"The EU has mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan, LBBW and NatWest Markets as Joint Lead Managers for its upcoming EUR Fixed Rate RegS Bearer dual tranche transaction comprising a new long 3-year benchmark line due 4th July 2028 and an increase of EU 3.375% benchmark due 5th October 2054 (EU000A3K4EY2). No further group. The transaction will be launched tomorrow, subject to market conditions. "
MNI comments
- The new 3-year maturing 4 July 2028 was one of the three issues highlighted as likely to launch in H1. We pencil in a tranche size of E5-7bln (we have not seen an EU-bond tranche larger than that since March 2022 - but there is a possibility we go a bit higher with the large H1 EU funding plan).
- The 3.375% Oct-54 tap we pencil in between E4-6bln (possibly partly depending upon the size of the new 3-year).
- We look for a combined E9-13bln total transaction size.
US: SOFR FIX - 13/01/25
Jan-13 11:05
SOFR - Bloomberg.
- 1mth 4.30624 0.0037
- 3mth 4.30198 0.01497
- 6mth 4.27941 0.03483
- 12mth 4.24478 0.06645
