CHILE: BCCh Likely To Extend Easing Cycle Pause This Month
Oct-10 11:17
- The central bank will publish its latest economist survey at 1230BST(0730ET), which will include analysts interest rate forecasts for the coming meetings. It comes after the monetary policy committee adopted a more hawkish tone last month amid persistent core inflation pressures, with several members also saying that they believed that the neutral rate may be in the upper half of the estimated 3.5-4.5% range.
- Subsequent CPI inflation data this week confirmed an increase in the headline rate to 4.4% y/y in September, as expected, while the central bank’s preferred core ex-volatiles measure held just below the 4% target ceiling. As a result, the BCCh is widely expected to remain on hold again when it meets next on Oct 28.
- For now, however, core inflation remains marginally below the central bank’s more hawkish estimates from its recent monetary policy report, which keeps the door open to a possible cut in December. For reference, last week’s BCCh traders survey indicated that market participants expect the next 25bp cut in December, followed by a final move to 4.25% in Q1.
- Against this backdrop, and with copper rallying, USDCLP has fallen 1.5% this week, briefly piercing support at 946.87, the Sep 16 low, yesterday. A clear break of this would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 940.00 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 968.90, the Oct 6 high.
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SWEDEN: 2026 Budget Policies Continue To Filter Through
Sep-10 11:11
This morning, the Swedish Government announced the latest set of measures included in the 2026 budget (to be presented in full on Sep 22). Today’s focus was an “entrepreneurship package”, the first set of business-focused policies entering the budget after several household-centred announcements in recent days.
- The Finance Ministry has now announced SEK53.5bln of expansionary policies for 2026, out of a SEK80bln total earmarked for the budget.
- Today’s policies totalled SEK7.2bln for 2026. The majority (SEK6.05bln) is being spent on a temporary reduction in the employer costs associated with hiring 18-23 year olds. See here for more.
- The Swedish labour market remains weak, so measures aimed at supporting businesses to stimulate employment appear necessary. A press conference detailing education and labour market-specific policies in the 2026 budget is currently ongoing (see here)
- Monthly activity indicators were released this morning. There are tentative signs of improvement for GDP/production as a whole, but consumption signals remain soft:
- GDP fell 0.2% M/M, but June’s figure was revised up to 1.4% from 0.5% initial (as expected following the Q2 final GDP report last month). On a 3m/3m basis, GDP is up 0.9% (vs 0.5% in June).
- Household consumption rose 0.2% M/M (vs 0.6% prior), but 3m/3m growth fell to 0.1%, the weakest since August 2024.
- Private sector production fell 1.7% M/M, unwinding a portion of June’s solid 2.7% rise. On an annual basis, production is up 3.8%.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Theme Remains Bullish
Sep-10 11:02
- In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has been cleared reinforcing a bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 1.1628.
- GBPUSD is holding on to its gains since rallying off the Sep 3 low. The climb has retraced the steep sell-off on Sep 2 and highlights a stronger bullish development. This also suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3465, the 50-day EMA.
- USDJPY continues to trade inside a range. Attention is on key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would signal a stronger bearish threat and highlight a range breakout. This would expose 145.40, 50% of the Apr - Aug upleg. On the upside, clearance of 149.14, the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +9.2% SA THRU SEP 05 WK
Sep-10 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +9.2% SA THRU SEP 05 WK
