CHILE: BCCh Expected To Extend Rate Pause Next Week
Mar-14 11:49
- USDCLP has edged lower in early trade Friday, with the pair around 933, as copper holds near a 10-month high. USDCLP remains in a bear-mode condition, with sights on 921.59, the 76.4% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Initial resistance is at 943.89, the 20-day EMA.
- The data calendar remains light again today, with attention turning to Q4 GDP and current account and the latest BCCh traders survey on Tuesday. These data come ahead of next Friday’s BCCh monetary policy meeting, when the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% for a second successive meeting.
- This week’s BCCh economist survey also confirmed expectations for an extended interest rate pause, with analysts still seeing the policy rate at 5.00% in five months and only expecting one 25bp cut to 4.75% by year-end.
- In other news, Codelco has warned that Q1 production will be impacted by maintenance work, with output flat to slightly weaker y/y. However, Chairman Pacheco still expects to meet the company’s internal quarterly target and expects production to rise 5% this year, with an even bigger increase projected for 2026.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Bounce Highlights A Potential Reversal
Feb-12 11:40
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a 2.00 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA - at $72.21, despite being pierced, has provided firm support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery also signals a stronger reversal of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 bear leg. Sights are on $75.18, the Feb 3 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at $70.43, the Feb 6 low.
EURIBOR: Put Condor buyer
Feb-12 11:28
ERM5 97.8125/97.75/97.6875/97.5625 broken p condor, bought for half in 8k.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI & Revisions, Fed Chair Powell in House
Feb-12 11:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 12-Feb 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (2.2%, --)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 2.9%)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.2%, 3.1%)
- 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% revised, --)
- 12-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell House Financial Services testimony
- 12-Feb 1130 US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction
- 12-Feb 1200 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 12-Feb 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CMM0)
- 12-Feb 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$86.7B, -$94.8B)
- 12-Feb 1705 Fed Gov Waller on Stablecoins (text, Q&A)
