CHILE: BCCh Economist Survey Sees Key Rate Unchanged at Next Meeting
* "CHILE INFLATION SEEN AT +0.4 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - CENBANK POLL * "CENTRAL BANK BENCHMARK RATE SEEN ...
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Core CPI Estimates See 0.31% M/M For July
- The below updates the list of analyst unrounded CPI estimates ahead of tomorrow’s July report -- the full MNI US CPI Preview will be released later today.
- The median of thirteen analysts below looks for headline CPI at 0.24% M/M, suggesting risk is tilted to the upside to the Bloomberg consensus of 0.2.
- Core CPI meanwhile is seen at 0.31% M/M (cons 0.3) with a current range of 0.21-0.35% M/M after the 0.23% M/M seen in June. It would be the strongest M/M since January.
- Particularly early core PCE tracking is currently between 0.29-0.33% from these analysts, an acceleration from 0.26% M/M in June. It would be the strongest M/M since February.
SOFR: Net Short Setting Most Prominent In Futures On Friday
OI data points to a slight bias towards net short setting across much of the SOFR futures strip on Friday, with pockets of net long cover also seen.
- Note the only exception to those positioning swing directions came via apparent modest net short cover in the very front (SFRM5), with the strip twist steepening on the day.
| 08-Aug-25 | 07-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,217,076 | 1,217,307 | -231 | Whites | +7,877 |
SFRU5 | 1,270,461 | 1,267,584 | +2,877 | Reds | +6,903 |
SFRZ5 | 1,371,711 | 1,377,023 | -5,312 | Greens | +4,943 |
SFRH6 | 1,053,918 | 1,043,375 | +10,543 | Blues | +4,683 |
SFRM6 | 882,314 | 880,401 | +1,913 |
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SFRU6 | 846,090 | 853,619 | -7,529 |
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SFRZ6 | 958,518 | 959,038 | -520 |
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SFRH7 | 732,776 | 719,737 | +13,039 |
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SFRM7 | 803,435 | 798,891 | +4,544 |
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SFRU7 | 580,107 | 579,235 | +872 |
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SFRZ7 | 517,699 | 515,922 | +1,777 |
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SFRH8 | 331,959 | 334,209 | -2,250 |
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SFRM8 | 263,039 | 262,305 | +734 |
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SFRU8 | 206,242 | 205,282 | +960 |
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SFRZ8 | 219,525 | 216,743 | +2,782 |
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SFRH9 | 152,941 | 152,734 | +207 |
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US TSYS: Summer Overnight Volumes, Trump Press Conference Headlines Docket
- Treasuries are mildly firmer after a late open with a Japan holiday, with benchmark tenors within Friday’s range.
- They see mixed European spillover, with Gilts outperforming as they retrace losses last week whilst EGBs underperform.
- With such a quiet docket, expect headlines/flow to dominate proceedings with tomorrow’s CPI report looming large.
- Today’s main scheduled event is President Trump’s press conference at 1000ET, with the focus set to be on law enforcement in the District of Columbia but always with scope for discussions on wide-ranging topics.
- Some areas worth watching: White House administration to issue an executive order clarifying gold tariffs in “the near future”, announcement of the new BLS commissioner due after Trump fired McEntarfer after the weak July payrolls report, and geopol-related headlines ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
- Cash yields are 1-5-2bp lower from Friday’s close.
- TYU5 trades at 11-29+ (+03) on extremely thin cumulative volumes of 145k. It holds its ground, with resistance seen at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high) and support at 110-19+ (Jul 24 low).
- Data: None scheduled
- Fedspeak: None scheduled
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $82B 13-W, $73B 26-W bills (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump press conference on law enforcement (1000ET)
