BRAZIL: BCB Interest Rate Decision Due At 2130GMT / 1630ET

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4061 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3987 200-dma
• PRICE: 1.3947 @ 16:32 BST Oct 6
• SUP 1: 1.3897/3830 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3830, the 50-day EMA.    

Equities had a constructive session Tuesday, with the S&P 500 set to post another record high close. Tech (+0.8% - S&P 500 subsector) and consumer discretionary stocks (+1.0%) outperforming. Consumer stapes (-0.7%) and real estate (-1.0%) lagged.

• Overall it was a tech story again: Tesla led consumer discretionary gains (+5%) as it shared hints that it would unveil a new product Tuesday, and Advanced Micro Devices soared 24% (38% at the high) after announcing a deal to supply OpenAI.
• Futures-wise, S&P Eminis are eyeing next resistance at 6812.29 (2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing).

Below gives key levels of markets in afternoon NY trade:
- DJIA  down 86.14 points (-0.18%) at 46669.52
- S&P E-Mini Future up 25.5 points (0.38%) at 6789
- Nasdaq up 181 points (0.8%) at 22959.5

Prior European bourses closing levels:
- EuroStoxx 50  down 22.99 points (-0.41%) at 5628.72
- FTSE 100  down 12.11 points (-0.13%) at 9479.14
- German DAX  down 0.51 points (0%) at 24378.29
- French CAC 40  down 109.76 points (-1.36%) at 7971.78

Monday's US rates/bond options flow included:

• TYZ5 114/116cs, bought for 13 in 5k
• SFRX5 96.43c, sold at 1.75 in 4k.
• SFRV5 96.31/96.37^^, sold at 1.5 in 2k
• SFRX5 96.25/96.43^^, traded 4.75 in 1.5k.
• SFRZ5 96.31/96.25/96.18p fly, bought for 0.25 in 2k
• SFRZ5 96.56/96.62cs, bought for half in 11k
• SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.43/96.56c condor, bought for 6 in 4k.
• SFRZ5 96.50/96.625cs, bought for 1 in 5k (on Block)
• SFRU6/Z6/H7/M7 96.875^, bought for 306.5 in 300 lots
• SFRU6 97.43/97.12/96.81p ladder, traded -0.75 in 5k.
• SFRU6 96.37p, traded for 8.5 in 2.5k.
• 2QZ5 96.50/96.37ps , traded 1.5 in 2k.