EU FINANCIALS: BBVA/SABSM - Merger update
Spanish newspaper Expansión reports that Spain's CNMC (competition committee) would not require BBVA to sell Sabadell's payments and SME businesses as part of a merger - as proposed by Sabadell. Other remedial actions may still be required - although the -translated - article seems to suggest that remediations would be somewhat in line with those proposed by BBVA. The review is ongoing and could complete as early as this month, although it could also extend into April.
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MNI: TURKEY JAN CPI +5.03% M/M
- MNI: TURKEY JAN CPI +5.03% M/M
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Rally
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 Intraday high
- PRICE: 106.925 @ 06:42 GMT Feb 3
- SUP 1: 106.805 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 106.676 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
Schatz futures have traded sharply higher today, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Jan 15. The contract has traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 106.676, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, today’s intraday low.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 3 Feb (2/2)
Syndications likely in the week:
- Belgium: We pencil in a 30-year Jun-56 OLO in the first half of February. This would likely see the 24 February conventional auction cancelled. We look for a E5bln transaction size (consistent with the last 3 years), with some upside risk.
- Germany: We pencil in a 30-year Bund syndication. We expect a similar size to last year (E6bln with E1bln retained). There is a gap in the auction calendar in the upcoming week – though this coincides with the Winter holidays in some regions, so holding off until later cannot be ruled out.
- Italy: 15-year BTP: We look for a 2040 BTP to be launched via syndication in February. We note that since 2019 a new 15-year BTP has launched in either January or February in 4/6 years (the exceptions being 2022 when it launched in May and 2023 when there was no 15-year launch at all). We look for a launch size of E8-10bln. There is also potential for a new 30-year BTP€I, although we think that is less likely until later in the year.
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees E17.8bln of redemptions from a formerly 8-year Italian CCTEU. Coupon payments for the week total E6.8bln of which E5.2bln are Italian, E1.3bln are from EU-bonds and E0.2bln are Austrian. This leaves estimate net flows for the week at positive E16.3bln, up slightly from positive E14.9bln last week.
