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Jul-04 13:45

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BOC: Holds Key Rate at 2.75%, Signals Potential Cut Amid Tariff Threat

Jun-04 13:45
  • Bank of Canada kept benchmark interest rate 2.75% Wednesday, in line with majority of economist expectations. 
  • Second consecutive decision to hold signaled potential cut if economy weakens and inflation contained. 
  • "On balance, members thought there could be a need for a reduction in the policy rate if the economy weakens in the face of continued US tariffs and uncertainty, and cost pressures on inflation are contained," Governor Macklem said.
  • "At this decision there was a clear consensus to hold policy unchanged as we gain more information."
  • Similar to previous statement BOC will continue monitoring timing and strength of downward pressure on inflation from a weaker economy and upward pressure from higher costs. BOC removed reference from prior statement that it could "act decisively" if the economy clearly moved in one direction. 
  • BOC says core inflation higher than it had expected, possibly because of tariffs. 
  • "The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued," BOC said. 
  • Recent surveys show consumers expecting higher prices and businesses intend to pass tariff costs to their customers, BOC also said. 
  • "Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks. This means we are being less forward-looking than usual."
  • The central bank will pay close attention to risks and uncertainties:  "extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve."

BOC: Instant Answers For BOC Rate Decision

Jun-04 13:45

Following are Instant Answers for the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision:

  • Overnight Rate Target (2.75%, unchanged, as majority of economists expected)
  • Does the Bank signal it is prepared to LOWER rates in the future? Yes
  • Does the Bank signal it is prepared to RAISE rates in the future? Not answered
  • Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold? Not answered
  • Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated or above the 2% target for headline CPI? Yes
  • Does the Bank say the trade war is boosting inflation or inflation expectations? Yes
  • Does the Bank say the risks to growth from the trade war appear to have eased? No

BOC KEEPS KEY RATE 2.75%; FULL EFFECT OF TARIFFS YET TO COME

Jun-04 13:45
  • BOC KEEPS KEY RATE 2.75%; FULL EFFECT OF TARIFFS YET TO COME
  • BOC: CUT MAYBE NEEDED IF TARIFFS WEAKEN GDP AND CPI CONTAINED
  • BOC SEES ECONOMY `CONSIDERABLY WEAKER' IN 2ND QTR ON EXPORTS
  • BOC SAYS SURVEYS SHOW INFLATION PRESSURE FROM TARIFFS
  • BOC:RECENT FIGURES SUGGEST TREND CPI MAYBE FIRMER THAN THOUGHT